2025

Variant: Wheat

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Feed): $6.50/bu to $8.00/bu FOB farm.
  • Price Range (CWRS 13.5%): ~$6.90/bu to $8.35/bu delivered.
  • Dominant Theme: A market defined by global weather concerns and quality issues, which provided a floor for prices despite a generally sideways trend.
  • Pivotal Event: Concurrent heatwaves and poor rainfall in key growing regions of China and Russia, which raised concerns about global production and quality.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral with a slightly bullish undertone due to weather risks.

Narrative

The wheat market in 2025 traded in a relatively stable range, with price action largely dictated by a steady stream of weather concerns from major global production regions. Early in the year, the U.S. faced a mix of drought and winterkill, while moisture issues plagued the Black Sea and EU regions. These problems provided underlying support for prices, preventing any significant sell-off.

As the year progressed, these weather stories intensified. In late spring and early summer, China's primary wheat-producing province was hit by an extreme heatwave during the critical grain-fill stage, while a major Russian region declared a state of emergency due to heat and lack of rain. Persistent rains during harvest in France and parts of the Black Sea raised significant quality concerns, with reports of downgrading and sprouting.

Locally, the Canadian crop also faced challenges, with dry conditions in many areas leading to crop condition ratings that were a noticeable step back from the previous year. Throughout this period, local feed wheat bids remained strong and consistent, generally trading between $7.00 and $7.75/bu FOB farm. Milling wheat prices held a premium, but the market lacked aggressive buying from either side, creating a holding pattern as traders waited to see how the global quality and production story would ultimately unfold.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The critical decision point was for the international grain buyer, such as a miller in North Africa or the Middle East. They saw concerning weather reports from multiple key exporting regions and had to decide whether to accelerate their purchasing and build inventory, paying a premium to secure supply before quality issues became widespread, or to wait, betting that the problems were localized and that cheaper wheat would be available later. The buyers who acted preemptively in the spring were the winners; they secured good quality wheat before the harvest rains in Europe and Russia led to widespread downgrading. Those who waited were left scrambling for a dwindling supply of high-quality milling wheat, ultimately paying more for a lower-grade product.

The Lasting Echo

In the global wheat market, widespread weather problems don't always create a price rally; instead, they often create a quality crisis, where the real premium is paid for securing grade, not just bushels.

2024

Variant: Wheat

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: Milling CWRS bids ranged from highs near $9.40/bu delivered to lows in the low $7.00s. Feed wheat consistently traded at a discount, from $8.00/bu down to $5.00/bu.
  • Dominant Theme: A market weighed down by abundant, low-cost global supplies, particularly from the Black Sea region, which limited export opportunities and pressured domestic prices.
  • Pivotal Event: China’s cancellation of multiple large purchases of U.S. wheat in March, which sent a bearish signal through the entire North American market about the fragility of international demand.
  • Market Sentiment: Overwhelmingly Bearish. With ample global stocks and intense export competition, there were few bullish stories to support prices.

Narrative

The 2024 wheat market was a story of a world awash in grain. From the start of the year, the market struggled to find any upward momentum, consistently pressured by a deluge of cheap exports from Russia and other Black Sea nations. Brief price spikes, like one following a Black Sea shipping incident in January, were short-lived. The dominant reality was one of fierce export competition, where Canadian wheat was often too expensive to win international tenders. This kept local bids on a slow, grinding decline throughout the year. Even with strong Canadian export volumes, the sheer size of global stockpiles meant buyers never had to chase prices. By year-end, milling bids had fallen significantly from their starting point, and feed wheat values were under additional pressure from cheap corn, leaving producers with few profitable marketing options.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The stakeholder facing the most challenging dilemma was the grower with high-quality milling wheat in the bin. They had to choose between selling their premium product at a disappointing price into the milling market or accepting a similar, sometimes even better, price by selling it into the less-demanding feed market. Selling as feed felt like a failure to capture the quality premium they had worked to produce, but it often offered a quicker, easier transaction. The winners, in a relative sense, were those who abandoned the weak milling premium and moved their grain as feed when it offered comparable or better net returns. The losers were growers who held out for a milling premium recovery that never came, only to see both feed and milling prices decline further.

The Lasting Echo

The 2024 wheat market was a stark demonstration that in an environment of global oversupply, even high-quality Canadian milling wheat can be forced to compete on price with lower-grade feed grains.

2023

Variant: Wheat (including Durum)

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (CWRS, #1): $8.75 - $11.80/bu delivered
  • Price Range (Feed): $7.75 - $10.75/bu FOB farm/delivered
  • Price Range (Durum, #1/#2): $10.25 - $15.50/bu delivered
  • Dominant Theme: A battle between tightening North American supplies due to drought and the overwhelming downward pressure of cheap, abundant Russian exports on the global market.
  • Pivotal Event: The mid-summer surge in durum prices to over $15.00/bu, driven by severe drought in the Canadian Prairies and production issues in other key growing regions, creating a stark price divergence from other wheat classes.
  • Market Sentiment: Bearish for Spring Wheat, Bullish for Durum

Narrative

The wheat complex in 2023 was fractured, with milling spring wheat and durum following distinctly different paths. Spring wheat began the year on firm footing, with #1 CWRS bids around $11.70/bu, supported by a strong Canadian export program and concerns over a harsh winter impacting the US HRW crop. However, this strength quickly eroded under the immense pressure of a massive Russian crop being offered at deep discounts on the world market. Despite ongoing uncertainty around the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the sheer volume of Russian exports weighed heavily on futures, dragging local bids steadily lower throughout the year. By late fall, #1 CWRS was struggling to hold $9.00/bu delivered. The premium for milling wheat often vanished entirely, with feed wheat bids frequently matching or exceeding milling values after freight considerations.

Durum, in contrast, embarked on a significant bull run. Starting the year around $13.70/bu, prices initially softened. However, as severe drought conditions took hold across the Canadian Prairies and reports emerged of poor crops in Spain and North Africa, the market narrative shifted to one of impending tight supply. Prices began to rally aggressively in the summer, with bids surging past $12.00/bu, then $14.00/bu, and eventually peaking over $15.00/bu delivered by August. While the market cooled slightly from its highs, it remained exceptionally strong for the remainder of the year, supported by the reality of a much smaller North American crop and the prospect of a Turkish export ban tightening global supply further.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The most critical decision was for the western Canadian grower in the late spring and early summer as drought conditions worsened. They had to decide whether to forward contract their expected durum production to lock in rallying prices, or to wait until harvest, betting that the full extent of the crop failure would lead to even higher spot values.

  • Winners: Growers who layered in sales as the durum market rallied through July and August. They capitalized on the weather-driven price surge, locking in exceptional profits at levels of $14.00/bu and above, while mitigating the risk of a late-season price correction.
  • Losers: Spring wheat growers who held unpriced grain past the first quarter. They were caught in the global price decline driven by Russian exports and saw the value of their inventory steadily decrease throughout the year.

The Lasting Echo

The year was a stark demonstration that in the global wheat market, quality-specific supply shocks, like the durum drought, can create powerful, isolated bull markets that move completely independently of the broader supply-and-demand fundamentals for generic milling wheat.

2022

Variant: Wheat (Spring)

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Milling #1 CWRS): Extreme volatility, starting near $12.00/bu, exploding to over $16.50/bu post-invasion, and then correcting back to the $11.00 - $12.00/bu range.
  • Price Range (Feed): Traded at a very narrow discount, and at times a premium, to milling wheat. Bids were consistently strong, starting near $12.00/bu, rallying to over $13.00/bu, and maintaining strength even as milling prices corrected.
  • Dominant Theme: A market violently reshaped by the war in Ukraine, leading to a massive speculative rally in futures that temporarily decoupled from local cash realities, while exceptionally strong feed demand provided a solid price floor.
  • Pivotal Event: Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a major wheat exporter, which triggered a global supply panic and sent futures prices soaring.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish to extremely volatile, followed by a significant correction and price consolidation.

Narrative

The 2022 spring wheat market was defined by two powerful forces: an explosive geopolitical rally and relentless domestic feed demand. The year began with the unusual situation of feed wheat trading at or near the value of top-grade milling wheat, a testament to the tight feed grain supplies following the 2021 drought. This dynamic was supercharged in February when Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent global wheat markets into a frenzy. With Black Sea exports threatened, futures prices exploded, pulling cash bids up to extraordinary levels, with milling wheat trading above $16.00/bu.

However, the rally eventually met the reality of a much-improved 2022 crop outlook across the Prairies. As harvest approached and a large, high-quality crop became certain, prices underwent a significant correction, falling back toward the $11.00-$12.00/bu range. Throughout this entire cycle, the feed market remained a constant source of strength. Feed bids consistently followed milling prices higher and provided a resilient floor on the way down, confirming that in 2022, a bushel of wheat was highly valued regardless of its protein content.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The critical decision point was for the grain elevator manager setting their basis levels. Their dilemma was how to manage risk during the massive futures rally. Setting a wide basis protected them from downside risk if the rally collapsed but meant they wouldn't buy any grain. Setting a narrow basis would attract farmer selling but exposed them to catastrophic losses if they bought grain just before the market peaked and corrected. The winners were those who deftly adjusted their basis daily, capturing bushels without taking on excessive risk. The losers were those who were either too timid and bought nothing or too aggressive and were caught with expensive inventory when the market turned.

The Lasting Echo

2022 revealed a profound shift in the wheat complex, where a geopolitical crisis could ignite a massive speculative rally, while intense local demand could erase the long-standing premium for milling quality, making all wheat simply "feed."

2021

Variant: Wheat

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Feed): Started the year near $6.50/bu, climbing steadily before exploding to trade in the $10.00-$11.50/bu FOB farm range in the second half.
  • Price Range (Milling CWRS #1 13.5%): Opened around $7.25-$7.60/bu, rallying relentlessly to trade at stunning levels of $12.50-$13.00/bu delivered by year-end.
  • Dominant Theme: A severe production shortfall in North America created a fierce competition for bushels between the milling and feed sectors, pulling prices for all qualities to multi-year, and in some cases, record highs.
  • Pivotal Event: The summer drought, which simultaneously slashed yields and concentrated protein, creating a scarcity of both total tonnes and lower-protein milling grades.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish all year, with sentiment intensifying from mid-summer onwards as the scale of the North American crop failure became undeniable.

Narrative

The 2021 wheat market was defined by a drought-induced supply shock that ignited a fierce bidding war between milling and feed buyers. The year began on a strong note, with feed wheat already trading at a profitable $6.50/bu and milling CWRS above $7.25/bu.

As the summer drought intensified, the market dynamic was fundamentally altered. It became clear that the 2021 crop would be drastically smaller than average. This triggered an aggressive rally across all grades. Feed wheat prices surged, driven by the same feed grain shortage that propelled barley, climbing to an incredible $10.00-$11.00/bu and beyond as livestock producers scrambled for tonnes.

Simultaneously, the milling market exploded. The drought not only cut yields but also drove protein levels unusually high, creating a shortage of mid-protein wheat. This scarcity, combined with a global supply squeeze, sent bids for top-quality CWRS soaring past $10.00, $11.00, and eventually to a breathtaking $12.50-$13.00/bu. For much of the second half, the spread between high-spec milling wheat and feed wheat was remarkably narrow, with feed bids sometimes exceeding those for lower-protein milling grades, reflecting a market desperate for bushels regardless of their end destination.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The critical dilemma was for the grower with milling-quality wheat in the bin. They had to choose between selling to a local elevator for a milling premium that involved quality risk and delivery schedules, or selling directly into the red-hot feed market for a cash price that was often nearly as high, with fewer specifications and quicker movement. Winners were growers who understood this dynamic and shopped their grain to both markets, maximizing their returns by selling to whichever sector offered the best net price on a given day. Losers were those who automatically delivered to a familiar channel without realizing the feed market was offering historically competitive, and sometimes superior, bids.

The Lasting Echo

The 2021 drought taught the wheat industry that in a severe supply shortage, the demand for raw energy calories can become so intense that the feed market will bid aggressively enough to challenge, and sometimes surpass, the price of milling quality grain.

2020

Variant: Wheat

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Feed): Started the year near $4.75/bu, remained stable, then rallied dramatically in the fall to a peak of $6.50/bu.
  • Price Range (Milling #1 CWRS 13.5%): Traded in a $6.25-$7.00/bu range, often showing a historically narrow premium to high-specification feed wheat.
  • Dominant Theme: The complete erosion of the quality premium, as a voracious feed market bid aggressively enough to make feed wheat the most profitable and liquid channel for many producers.
  • Pivotal Event: The powerful fourth-quarter rally in feed demand from Western Canadian feedlots, which pushed cash bids for feed to levels that met or exceeded bids for mid-grade milling wheat.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish for feed; Neutral to Bearish for milling.

Narrative

The 2020 wheat market was defined by the stunning strength of the feed sector. For most of the year, feed wheat prices remained remarkably stable, providing a solid floor for the entire complex. This stability transformed into a powerful rally in the fall, as strong demand from Alberta's feedlots, coupled with a lack of cheaper alternatives like US corn, forced buyers to bid aggressively. Feed prices shot up from below $5.00/bu to over $6.00/bu, peaking at an incredible $6.50/bu in some western locations.

This created an unprecedented market dynamic where the premium for milling quality all but disappeared. Bids for high-protein #1 CWRS wheat struggled to maintain a meaningful spread over top-spec feed, and for lower-protein or #2 milling wheat, the feed market was often the more lucrative option. The situation was clear: domestic feed demand was the primary driver of value, and it was willing to pay for energy and bushel weight, regardless of milling characteristics. This forced growers to re-evaluate their marketing strategies, often finding that the best price was at the local feedlot, not the distant flour mill.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The year’s most common and critical decision was for the grower with a bin of #1 or #2 milling wheat with middling protein (e.g., 12.5%). Their dilemma was whether to chase the elusive and often disappointing milling premium—a process that involved quality risk, potential discounts, and longer payment terms—or to sell the same grain directly into the red-hot feed market for a comparable or better price and immediate payment. The winners were the pragmatic growers who recognized the historic market inversion and sold their wheat based on its feed value, maximizing their net return with minimal hassle. The losers were those who chased milling premiums that the market was simply unwilling to pay.

The Lasting Echo

The 2020 wheat market was a powerful lesson that when domestic demand is strong enough, it can completely erase traditional quality spreads, forcing a redefinition of a crop's value based on its most immediate and aggressive end-user.

2019

Variant: Wheat

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Feed): $4.25 - $6.30/bu FOB farm, showing exceptional strength through summer before harvest.
  • Price Range (Milling HRSW #1 13.5%): Approx. 6.10 - $7.30/bu delivered plant.
  • Price Range (Milling Durum #1): Approx. $6.50 - $9.00/bu FOB farm/delivered, with a dramatic late-year rally on quality concerns.
  • Dominant Theme: A market defined by quality, with powerful feed demand and a disastrous harvest creating significant premiums for both the lowest and highest grades.
  • Pivotal Event: A wet, snowy, and prolonged harvest that decimated the quality profile of the 2019 crop, creating a scarcity of high-grade milling durum and a deluge of feed-quality grain.
  • Market Sentiment: Mixed. Bullish for feed wheat and high-quality durum due to weather-induced supply issues. Bearish for mid-grade milling wheat, which faced pressure from both ends of the quality spectrum.

Narrative

The 2019 wheat market was a story of extremes, driven by a powerful feed market and culminating in a quality-focused harvest crisis. The year started with feed wheat showing unusual strength, trading in the high $5.00/bu range and even touching $6.00/bu. This robust demand pulled in lower-grade milling wheat and durum, offering growers an attractive and liquid sales option. Meanwhile, high-grade milling markets were relatively subdued, with #1 CWRS at $7.20-$7.30/bu and durum struggling under the weight of large carryover stocks.

The narrative was completely rewritten by the fall harvest. Persistent rain and early snow stalled progress and severely damaged the quality of the crop still in the field. This created two distinct and powerful market trends. First, it triggered a massive rally in high-quality milling durum, as the available supply of #1 CWAD became incredibly scarce; bids in southeast Saskatchewan exploded to $9.00/bu FOB. Second, it guaranteed a massive supply of feed-quality grain for the coming year, which began to pressure feed bids lower after a strong summer.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The most critical decision fell to the grower with #1 milling durum in the bin as harvest began. Their dilemma was whether to sell at pre-harvest bids around $7.00/bu or to hold, betting that the impending weather disaster would create a significant quality premium. The winners, by a massive margin, were those who held their top-grade durum through the harvest turmoil. They were rewarded with a price rally of over $1.50/bu, as the market scrambled to find the very quality they had preserved. The losers were those who sold early, missing one of the most significant weather-driven trading opportunities of the year.

The Lasting Echo

The 2019 harvest crisis was a brutal reminder that in the wheat market, value is ultimately determined not by the size of the crop, but by its grade.

2018

Variant: Wheat

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Feed): $4.75 - $6.00/bu FOB farm
  • Price Range (CWRS #1 13.5%): Approx. $6.50 - $7.25/bu delivered
  • Price Range (Durum #1): Eroded from near $7.90/bu down to $6.50/bu by year-end.
  • Dominant Theme: The surprising strength of the domestic feed market, which often offered better net returns than low-protein milling grades, while the durum market faced steady price erosion.
  • Pivotal Event: The mid-year period when feed wheat bids climbed above $5.50/bu, creating a profitable, low-risk alternative for growers holding off-spec or low-protein milling wheat.
  • Market Sentiment: Firm for feed, sideways for milling spring wheat, and consistently bearish for durum.

Narrative

The wheat complex in 2018 was a story of internal market shifts and surprising strength in the lower grades. While high-protein milling CWRS traded in a predictable range and durum saw its value steadily decline under the weight of ample global supply, the real action was in the feed market. Strong and consistent demand from the Western Canadian livestock sector pushed feed wheat prices to levels that challenged, and often surpassed, the net returns for low-protein milling wheat. This created a dynamic where grade and protein became secondary to the simple economics of feed parity, offering a valuable and highly liquid marketing channel for a significant portion of the prairie crop and rewarding producers who prioritized volume and tonnage.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The critical decision fell to the grower with a bin of #1 CWRS wheat testing at 12.5% protein. The choice was to chase milling premiums that would be heavily nullified by protein discounts or to sell directly into the robust feed market at a strong, transparent price. The winners were those who recognized the superior net return of the feed market and sold without hesitation, avoiding the complexities and disappointments of protein scales. Losers were those who fixated on milling grades and accepted heavy discounts, leaving money on the table.

The Lasting Echo

2018 demonstrated that a strong domestic feed grain complex can fundamentally alter wheat marketing, turning the feed market from a salvager of last resort into a primary, profitable destination.

2017

Variant: Wheat (Feed & Milling)

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Low-Vomi Feed): $4.50/bu to $5.00/bu FOB farm
  • Price Range (High-Vomi Feed): ~$3.50/bu to $4.00/bu FOB farm
  • Price Range (Milling CWRS): ~$6.50/bu delivered (base); significant protein premiums available
  • Dominant Theme: A market sharply divided by quality, with a glut of high-vomitoxin 2016 carryover depressing one end of the market while strong demand for clean feed and high protein created premiums at the other.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral. The market was balanced, with weakness in lower grades offset by solid demand for specific quality attributes.

Narrative

The wheat market in 2017 was a story of quality segmentation. The feed market was still grappling with the legacy of the poor 2016 harvest, with a large amount of high-vomitoxin grain in the system. However, bids for the clean 2017 crop (under 1 ppm vomitoxin) were surprisingly strong, consistently trading in the $4.50-$5.00/bu range in freight-advantaged areas. This strength was partly due to low protein levels in much of the new milling wheat crop, which pushed more bushels into the feed channel and supported demand.

The milling market was a different game entirely, driven by a hunt for protein. While base bids for a #1 CWRS hovered around $6.50/bu delivered, significant premiums were available for high protein wheat, with some bids pushing over $9.00/bu. The market clearly bifurcated: low-quality or low-protein wheat went to the feed market, where it competed with corn, while high-protein wheat was sought after for its milling characteristics. The year demonstrated that "wheat" was not one market, but several distinct markets based on a checklist of quality specifications.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The dilemma belonged to the grower with mid-quality milling wheat. They faced the choice of selling their grain into the milling market, where they might face significant protein discounts that could push their net price below feed values, or bypassing that risk entirely and selling directly into the strong and liquid feed market. The winners were growers who accurately assessed their quality and chose the marketing channel that offered the best net return, whether it was chasing a protein premium or taking the safe, high-value feed bid. The losers were those who delivered to the milling market with low protein, only to see their final price eroded by discounts.

The Lasting Echo

When a crop's average quality profile shifts, it can blur the traditional lines between markets, making the "lower-grade" feed market a more profitable option than the "premium" milling market for a significant portion of production.

Disclaimer: My analytical process is a hybrid model, combining customized AI tools with manual expertise. The AI is trained for initial data synthesis and signal detection, leaving the crucial work of strategic interpretation and final analysis to me.