2025

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Yellow): $7.50/bu to $11.00/bu, with prices declining throughout the year.
  • Price Range (Green): $12.00/bu to $17.00/bu, holding stronger than yellows due to tighter supplies.
  • Dominant Theme: A market collapse driven by the sudden imposition of prohibitive import tariffs by key trading partners, primarily China.
  • Pivotal Event: China's March announcement of a 100% tariff on Canadian pea imports, effectively shutting down a cornerstone of Canadian pea demand overnight.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish turning catastrophically Bearish.

Narrative

The 2025 pea market began on a steady note but devolved into a crisis following devastating trade actions. In January, old crop yellow peas were priced at a solid $10.25–$10.75/bu, while green peas showed even greater strength at $16.50–$17.00/bu, supported by tight supplies and good export opportunities. India's extension of its zero-tariff policy provided early-year stability.

This stability was shattered in March. First, India signaled it would likely reinstate tariffs, but the crippling blow came when China, a crucial market, imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian peas. The impact was immediate and severe. Buyers retreated, and prices began a steady decline.

Yellow pea bids softened, falling into the $8.00s/bu as Russia increasingly displaced Canadian product into China's feed market. Green peas held their value better for a time due to tighter initial supplies, but they too eventually succumbed to the negative market sentiment, falling to the $12.00-$13.00/bu range by late summer. The maple pea market, heavily reliant on China, went silent, with bids becoming scarce and falling to near $12.00/bu. The market was left reeling, facing a heavy supply situation with its largest customers effectively locked out.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The stakeholder facing an existential crisis was the Canadian pea exporter whose business was heavily concentrated on the Chinese market. When the 100% tariff was announced, they were faced with a stark choice: attempt to renegotiate or cancel existing contracts, facing massive financial penalties and reputational damage, or ship the peas and absorb a catastrophic loss. There were no winners. The exporters who were able to pivot and find alternative, albeit less profitable, markets in other parts of Asia were the survivors. The losers were those who were too exposed to a single market and were left with unsellable inventory and crippling financial losses.

The Lasting Echo

The 2025 pea crisis was a textbook example of the immense danger of customer concentration, demonstrating that market access can vanish overnight, regardless of supply or quality.

2024

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Yellows): Highly volatile, with bids swinging wildly from $10.50/bu to as high as $15.00/bu delivered, driven entirely by news from India.
  • Price Range (Greens/Maples): Exceptionally strong and less volatile. Greens consistently traded at $17.00-$20.00/bu, while maples held an astonishing range of $25.00-$28.00/bu.
  • Dominant Theme: A fractured market where greens and maples enjoyed a structural bull market due to tight supplies, while yellows were a high-stakes gamble on Indian trade policy.
  • Pivotal Event: India's decision to lift import tariffs, which caused an immediate spike in yellow pea prices, followed by extensions of the policy that created prolonged market uncertainty.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish for Greens and Maples; Volatile and Unpredictable for Yellows.

Narrative

The 2024 pea market was a study in contrasts, split between the steady fortunes of greens and maples and the wild drama of yellows. Green and maple peas were the year’s superstars, with tight supplies driving prices to extraordinary levels. Greens consistently commanded bids of $17-$20/bu, while maples held a historically high plateau of $25-$28/bu. The story for yellow peas, however, was a "conundrum." The market was completely beholden to India, exploding into the mid-teens when tariffs were unexpectedly lifted, only to recede just as quickly as buyers covered their immediate needs. The value of yellow peas became a day-to-day speculation on whether India would extend its zero-tariff policy, creating a wide and uncertain bid range that left both buyers and sellers struggling to find firm footing.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The year's most high-stakes decision belonged to the holder of unpriced yellow peas immediately following India's removal of tariffs. They faced a gambler's choice: sell immediately into the price spike to lock in a fantastic, guaranteed profit, or hold on, betting that the tariff policy would be extended and that further demand would drive prices even higher. This was a classic "bird in the hand" dilemma. The winners were the disciplined marketers who sold into the initial strength, securing near-peak prices without taking on policy risk. The losers were those who held on too long, only to see bids recede as initial demand was filled and the market entered a prolonged state of uncertainty.

The Lasting Echo

The 2024 pea market was a powerful illustration of how dependent a commodity can be on the policy decisions of a single importing nation, creating a volatile, news-driven market for one variety while others trade on entirely different fundamentals.

2023

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Yellow, #2): $9.00 - $13.00/bu FOB farm/delivered
  • Price Range (Green, #2): $11.50 - $18.50/bu FOB farm/delivered
  • Price Range (Maple): $13.00 - $26.00/bu FOB farm/delivered
  • Dominant Theme: A market driven by exceptional premiums for green and maple peas amid tight supplies, while yellows languished under the weight of weak Chinese demand and Russian competition.
  • Pivotal Event: India's removal of import tariffs on yellow peas in early December, which provided a much-needed, albeit potentially temporary, demand catalyst and price lift for the struggling yellow pea market.
  • Market Sentiment: Sharply Bifurcated (Bullish for Greens/Maples, Bearish for Yellows)

Narrative

The 2023 pea market was sharply divided by color. Yellow peas spent most of the year in a slump, opening with bids around $12.50-$13.00/bu but quickly softening. The primary weight on the market was lackluster demand from China, where Canadian peas faced increasing competition from cheaper Russian supply and alternative feedstuffs like soymeal and corn. Bids for yellows steadily eroded, falling to the $10.00-$10.50/bu range by late fall, with buyers showing very little aggressive interest. The market received a sudden jolt in December when India removed its import tariff, causing bids to rally back toward $12.50-$13.00/bu, though the longevity of this demand window remained uncertain.

In contrast, green and maple peas were in a powerful bull market. Driven by tighter supplies and consistent demand, both varieties commanded significant and growing premiums over yellows throughout the year. Green peas started strong around $13.50/bu and climbed steadily, reaching $15.00/bu by mid-year and surging to over $17.00/bu—even hitting $18.50 delivered—in the fall. New crop bids for greens were also very strong, often trading at a $2-$3/bu premium over new crop yellows.

The standout performer, however, was maple peas. This niche market saw explosive price appreciation, with bids starting in the $17-$19/bu range and rocketing to an astonishing $25-$26/bu by the end of the year. This exceptional demand created one of the most profitable opportunities for Prairie growers in 2023.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key decision point belonged to the pea grower at seeding time. With a clear and substantial price premium being offered for new crop green peas (and to a lesser extent, maples) over yellow peas, the dilemma was whether to pivot acres to capture this premium or stick with a traditional yellow pea rotation.

  • Winners: Growers who shifted acres into green and especially maple peas. They capitalized on a fundamentally tight market, locking in excellent new crop prices and benefiting from a spot market that rallied to multi-year highs, delivering outstanding returns.
  • Losers: Growers who remained solely focused on yellow peas. They faced a stagnant, low-priced market for most of the year and missed the opportunity to capture the significant premiums offered by other varieties, leaving considerable profit on the table.

The Lasting Echo

The year was a definitive showcase of how specific end-user demand and varietal supply constraints can create massive price divergences within the same crop, making cropping decisions more critical than the overall direction of the pulse market.

2022

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Yellows): Opened the year at a very strong $17.00 - $18.00/bu, but gradually softened throughout the year, correcting to the $11.50 - $12.50/bu range by late fall.
  • Price Range (Greens): Traded at a discount to yellows for most of the year, starting near $16.00/bu and correcting to the $12.00 - $12.50/bu range, eventually regaining a slight premium over yellows late in the year.
  • Dominant Theme: A gradual price correction from post-drought highs, as demand from key markets like China became less aggressive and the prospect of a better 2022 crop weighed on values.
  • Pivotal Event: The re-emergence of a price premium for green peas over yellows late in the year, signaling a shift in relative supply-demand dynamics after a long period of yellow pea dominance.
  • Market Sentiment: Softening; a slow but steady decline from the strong prices seen at the start of the year.

Narrative

The 2022 pea market experienced a managed retreat from the exceptional prices of the post-drought period. Yellow peas began the year commanding a premium, with bids as high as $18.00/bu, driven by strong demand from the US and domestic fractionation markets. Green peas traded at a slight discount, hampered by logistical challenges with container shipping. However, as the year progressed, the aggressive buying tapered off. With Canada having priced itself out of overseas feed markets and facing new competition from Russia into China, the market began a slow but steady price correction.

New crop bids were strong, appearing in the $13.00-$14.00/bu range for both yellows and greens, encouraging production. As the better 2022 crop was harvested, the gap between old and new crop closed, with values for both settling in the $11.00-$12.50/bu range. In a significant late-year development, green peas regained their traditional premium over yellows, a reflection of tighter green pea supplies and a potential shift in demand focus heading into 2023.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key decision-maker was the Canadian pulse exporter. Their dilemma was how to price Canadian peas into a global market where they were uncompetitive for feed demand but still sought after for food and fractionation. They had to choose between lowering offers to compete with Russian supply into feed channels, thereby eroding margins, or holding prices firm to serve the higher-value fractionation market, risking lower overall volume. The winners were those who successfully navigated this dual market, securing high-value fractionation sales while avoiding getting caught with overpriced inventory that couldn't compete for feed.

The Lasting Echo

2022 marked a transition year where the North American pea market had to adapt to a new reality: its high-value fractionation demand could support prices, but it could no longer take its lower-value feed demand for granted in the face of aggressive Russian competition.

2021

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Yellows): Opened the year strong near $9.25/bu, rallied steadily to trade in the $15.00-$18.00/bu range by late fall.
  • Price Range (Greens): Started around $9.00/bu, briefly lagged yellows, but caught fire post-harvest to trade at similar $15.00-$16.50/bu levels.
  • Price Range (Maples): Followed the market higher, starting near $10.00/bu and surging to trade in the $18.00-$20.00/bu range.
  • Dominant Theme: A market propped up initially by Chinese feed demand, then supercharged by a North American production failure that created a domestic bidding war for protein, pushing prices to record highs.
  • Pivotal Event: The disastrous harvest results across the Prairies and US Northern Plains, which confirmed a massive supply shortfall and shifted the primary pricing influence from Chinese export bids to desperate domestic feed and fractionation buyers.
  • Market Sentiment: Firmly bullish all year, accelerating into a near-panic buying situation from August onward.

Narrative

The 2021 pea market was a story of a fundamental shift in demand drivers, amplified by a catastrophic supply shock. The year began with yellow peas in the driver's seat, with prices north of $9.00/bu sustained almost exclusively by China's voracious demand for its hog feed rations. Green peas lagged, trading at a discount as they lacked the same feed system pull.

This dynamic held through the first half of the year, with yellow pea bids steadily climbing past $10.00 and then $11.00/bu as Canadian supplies dwindled. The market's entire structure was then violently reshaped by the summer drought. The extreme heat devastated pea crops on both sides of the Canada-US border, leading to a massive production shortfall.

With a severely limited crop, the pricing focus pivoted from export to an intensely competitive domestic market. US and Canadian protein fractionators and feed compounders, facing shortages of all protein sources, began bidding aggressively for any available pea tonnes. This domestic competition sent prices for all varieties soaring. Yellows and greens converged in the $15.00-$16.00/bu range, with yellows briefly hitting $18.00/bu in some locations. Maples, a smaller market, were pulled even higher, reaching $19.00-$20.00/bu. The year ended not with China as the marginal buyer, but with North American domestic users setting the historically high price floor.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The stakeholder facing the toughest dilemma was the international trader. Their choice was whether to pre-sell large volumes to China based on early-year prices and expected production, or to wait and see how the season unfolded. Those who were heavily committed and short-covered faced enormous losses as they had to buy back bushels in a skyrocketing domestic market to fulfill their sales. The winners were growers who produced a crop and sold into the post-harvest domestic rally. Losers also included domestic processors who waited too long to secure their needs, thinking the China-driven market might cool off, only to find themselves competing for bushels at record prices.

The Lasting Echo

2021 taught the pea market that while Chinese feed demand can build a strong price floor, a severe North American drought can build a skyscraper on top of it, revealing a powerful and price-inelastic domestic demand for protein.

2020

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Yellows): Rallied from ~$7.00/bu delivered to a multi-year high over $9.25/bu delivered by year-end.
  • Price Range (Greens): Began the year with a strong premium near $11.50/bu, but softened to trade in a $9.00-$10.00/bu range, losing its premium to yellows.
  • Price Range (Maples): Stable, trading in an $8.00-$10.00/bu range for most of the year.
  • Dominant Theme: The remarkable rise of yellow peas, which erased the long-standing premium for greens, driven by relentless demand from China's feed and fractionation sectors.
  • Pivotal Event: The September StatsCan report, which revised Canadian pea production estimates significantly lower, confirming a much tighter supply scenario and adding fuel to the yellow pea rally.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish for yellows; Neutral to softening for greens.

Narrative

The story of the 2020 pea market was the crowning of a new king: yellow peas. While the year began with the traditional price structure—greens holding a significant premium over yellows—relentless and price-inelastic demand from China completely upended this dynamic. As China's feed sector sought protein alternatives and its fractionation industry expanded, their buying focused squarely on yellow peas, creating a powerful and sustained rally.

Prices for yellows started the year around $7.00/bu and steadily climbed, breaking through $8.00/bu and pushing past $9.00/bu by winter. The rally was reinforced by a September StatsCan report that significantly lowered production estimates, confirming that supplies would be much tighter than the market initially thought. In contrast, green peas, which saw an increase in acreage, went in the opposite direction. After starting the year strong, their price softened, and for the first time in recent memory, the premium for greens over yellows vanished and, in some cases, inverted. This fundamental shift in intra-crop spreads redefined the market, rewarding those aligned with the new demand reality.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The defining decision was for a grower deciding which class of peas to plant in the spring. The dilemma was whether to stick with traditional green peas, counting on their historical premium and established markets, or to pivot to yellow peas, betting that the rising tide of Chinese demand would offer better returns. The clear winners were growers who increased their yellow pea acreage, as they were perfectly positioned to capitalize on the year's biggest rally in the pulse complex. Those who remained heavily weighted in green peas still had a profitable year but missed out on the superior price performance and liquidity offered by the yellow pea market.

The Lasting Echo

The 2020 pea market was a powerful demonstration of how the emergence of a single, dominant end-user can fundamentally and permanently reshape a crop’s internal price relationships.

2019

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Yellows): $5.50 - $7.50/bu FOB farm/delivered, with early-year highs giving way to harvest pressure.
  • Price Range (Greens): $7.50 - $13.00/bu FOB farm/delivered, showing exceptional strength early before converging with new crop values.
  • Price Range (Maples): $7.00 - $16.00/bu FOB farm, another standout performer due to tight supply.
  • Dominant Theme: A sharply divided market, where tight supplies sent green and maple pea prices soaring while a supply glut and trade uncertainty kept a firm lid on yellows.
  • Pivotal Event: A surge in green pea prices to $12.00-$13.00/bu in the first half of the year, driven by dwindling on-farm stocks and creating a massive price inversion over yellow peas.
  • Market Sentiment: Mixed. Bullish for greens and maples due to a clear supply shortage; stubbornly bearish for yellows due to Indian tariffs, Chinese uncertainty, and a large prospective crop.

Narrative

The 2019 pea market was a tale of haves and have-nots. The "haves" were green and maple peas, which saw prices skyrocket due to a shortage of supply. Green pea bids, starting the year at $10.50/bu, climbed steadily to an impressive $12.00-$13.00/bu by late spring as buyers chased dwindling stocks. Maple peas were even more spectacular, with bids hitting $16.00/bu.

In stark contrast, the "have-nots" were yellow peas. Weighed down by the ongoing Indian import tariffs, uncertainty over Chinese demand, and a large carryover, yellow pea prices remained stuck in a frustratingly narrow range. Bids struggled to hold the $7.00/bu mark and softened to $6.50/bu or lower as a projected 18% increase in total Canadian pea acres loomed. A difficult harvest created quality concerns and provided some late-year strength for top-grade greens, but the fundamental story remained one of divergence: a supply squeeze in the niche varieties versus a supply glut in the dominant yellow class.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The defining dilemma of the year was for the grower deciding on their 2019 pea acreage mix. They had to choose between planting traditional yellow peas, with their low prices but established liquidity, or pivoting to higher-priced green or maple peas, which offered better new crop contract values (e.g., $8.50/bu for greens) but faced the risk of a market collapse if acres jumped too dramatically. Growers who increased their green and maple acreage and locked in new crop contracts were the winners, capturing a significant premium over yellows. Those who stuck with an all-yellow program endured another year of low prices and market stagnation.

The Lasting Echo

The 2019 pea market was a vivid illustration of how quickly supply imbalances within a single crop category can create dramatic and profitable price inversions.

2018

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Green): $8.00 - $10.50/bu FOB/delivered
  • Price Range (Yellow): $6.00 - $7.00/bu FOB/delivered
  • Price Range (Maple): Rallied late in the year to $15.00/bu picked up.
  • Dominant Theme: A market fractured in two, with green peas holding strong due to diverse destinations while yellow peas were pinned down by the effective closure of the Indian market.
  • Pivotal Event: The late-year rally driven by renewed Chinese demand and speculative buying tied to Indian weather concerns, which briefly lifted all pea prices and pushed greens above $10/bu.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish for greens and maples; bearish to neutral for yellows.

Narrative

The 2018 pea market told a story of sharp divergence. Green peas, supported by a broader customer base including China, managed to weather the storm of Indian trade restrictions, maintaining strong and even firming prices throughout the year. In stark contrast, yellow peas were anchored to unprofitable levels, a direct consequence of their heavy reliance on the now-inaccessible Indian market. The price spread between the two varieties became a defining feature of the market. A late-year surge, fueled by strong Chinese buying and weather worries in India, provided a welcome rally for all types, pushing greens past $10/bu and maples to $15/bu. This highlighted the market's extreme sensitivity to any hint of renewed demand from any corner of the globe.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The dilemma belonged to the pea grower with both yellow and green varieties in the bin. The decision was whether to sell the strong-priced greens to capture immediate and certain profit or to sell the stagnant yellows to generate cash flow, even at disappointing levels. Growers who sold greens were rewarded for producing for a diversified market. Those forced to sell yellows felt the full impact of India's protectionist trade policy. The most strategic players used profits from their green and maple peas to offset the weakness in their yellow pea inventory, managing their farm's overall portfolio.

The Lasting Echo

The stark price divergence between green and yellow peas in 2018 was a powerful illustration of how market access, more than overall supply, can dictate a crop's profitability.

2017

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Yellows): Pre-tariff: $7.50-$8.50/bu; Post-tariff: $6.00-$7.25/bu
  • Price Range (Greens): Pre-tariff: $8.00-$8.75/bu; Post-tariff: $7.00-$8.25/bu
  • Dominant Theme: Market paralysis and price collapse following the imposition of a massive import tariff by the single largest global customer.
  • Pivotal Event: India's announcement of a 50% import duty on peas in early November, which instantly shattered the market's fundamental structure.
  • Market Sentiment: Stable turning Catastrophic. A normal market environment was upended overnight by a single geopolitical trade decision.

Narrative

The pea market in 2017 will forever be defined by a single event. The year progressed under relatively normal conditions, with prices for yellows and greens holding in a profitable range of $8.00-$9.00/bu. Concerns were focused on typical factors like dry conditions in North America and competition from the Black Sea. This stability was annihilated in early November.

India, the world's largest importer of peas, abruptly slapped a 50% tariff on all imports. The effect was immediate and devastating. Buyers pulled bids entirely, and when they returned, prices had collapsed. Yellow peas, which are heavily reliant on the Indian market, bore the brunt of the impact, with bids plunging by over $2.00/bu. Green peas, with a more diversified customer base, fared better but were still dragged down significantly. The industry was thrown into turmoil, forced to scramble for alternative, lower-value markets like China for food and Spain for feed, fundamentally reshaping global trade flows overnight.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The pea producer faced the ultimate geopolitical timing dilemma. The choice was to sell at profitable and stable prices before the November announcement or to hold on, completely unaware that a single government decree was about to erase billions of dollars in market value. The winners were growers who had a disciplined marketing plan and sold a significant portion of their crop before the tariff hit. The losers were the vast majority who were holding inventory, who saw the value of their crop plummet overnight due to a factor completely outside their control.

The Lasting Echo

When a single buyer dominates global demand, the entire market is exposed to catastrophic risk from a single political decision, proving that trade policy can be a more powerful price driver than any weather event or supply report.

Disclaimer: My analytical process is a hybrid model, combining customized AI tools with manual expertise. The AI is trained for initial data synthesis and signal detection, leaving the crucial work of strategic interpretation and final analysis to me.