2025

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (#2 Milling): $4.00/bu to $5.00/bu, with prices generally quoted delivered.
  • Dominant Theme: A stagnant, sideways market with limited buyer interest for milling quality and extremely weak demand for lighter, feed-quality oats.
  • Pivotal Event: Persistent uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs, which caused many export-oriented buyers to remain on the sidelines and suppressed market activity.
  • Market Sentiment: Bearish to Neutral.

Narrative

The oat market in 2025 was characterized by profound inactivity and price stagnation. From the beginning of the year, bids for dry, heavy milling oats were stuck in a narrow range around $4.00-$4.50/bu. While domestic carry-out stocks were projected to be critically tight, this failed to translate into price strength due to a near-total lack of enthusiastic buying.

The market was further paralyzed by the threat of U.S. tariffs. As a significant portion of Canada’s oat production moves south, the uncertainty made it challenging for both buyers and sellers to plan, leading to a standstill. Demand for lighter oats was virtually non-existent, with bids discounted by $1.00-$2.00/bu and few buyers willing to engage.

This sideways trend persisted for the entire year. Even as other grain markets experienced volatility, oats remained flat. Buyers appeared to have adequate coverage and were content to make only small, opportunistic purchases. New crop bids, when they appeared, were in the same range as old crop, with delivery windows extending deep into 2026, signaling a well-supplied and unhurried market.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The stakeholder in the most difficult position was the grower holding a bin of light-weight oats (under 38 lbs). Their dilemma was whether to sell at a steep discount into a market with very few buyers or to hold the inventory indefinitely, risking further quality degradation and tying up storage space. The winners, in a relative sense, were the few growers who managed to find a rare pocket of demand and move their off-spec product, even at a low price. The majority who held on were the losers, left with an asset that the market showed no interest in, effectively making it illiquid.

The Lasting Echo

Tight supplies cannot create a bull market if demand is absent, proving that you cannot sell what no one is actively trying to buy.

2024

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: Milling oats bids were very stable, holding a tight range of $4.50-$5.00/bu delivered. Heavy feed oats traded consistently around $4.00-$4.25/bu FOB farm.
  • Dominant Theme: A quiet, sideways market where ample carry-over supply from 2022 and decent 2023 yields were sufficient to meet steady but unaggressive demand.
  • Pivotal Event: The widespread reports of good yields despite fewer planted acres, which confirmed that supply would not be a concern and locked the market into its sideways pattern.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral. Buyers had coverage and were not chasing tonnage, while sellers saw little incentive to hold for a rally that never seemed imminent.

Narrative

The 2024 oat market was a picture of stability, defined by a comfortable balance between supply and demand. Prices for milling quality oats held in a narrow band around $4.50-$5.00/bu delivered throughout the year, while heavy feed oats found consistent bids near $4.00/bu. Despite a reduction in seeded acres in 2023, a large carry-over from the previous crop year and favorable yields meant buyers never felt pressured to chase the market. This led to a prolonged period of sideways price action. While there was some optimism around new export markets exploring the health benefits of oats, this did not translate into immediate market-moving demand. It was a year where sellers could move product at historically decent prices, but any hope for a significant price rally was consistently tempered by the comfortable supply situation.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The central dilemma was for the grower deciding on 2024 cereal acres. They could plant oats, which offered a decent and stable, albeit unexciting, price outlook. Or they could pivot to other cereals like canaryseed, which offered similar returns, or risk planting wheat into a market with a more bearish global outlook. Choosing oats was a safe, middle-of-the-road play. The winners were growers who sought stability and were content with the solid, predictable returns offered by the oat market. There were no clear losers, but farmers who allocated acres away from oats in hopes of a rally in other cereals were likely met with similar or worse returns, validating the steady nature of the oat market in 2024.

The Lasting Echo

In a year of falling prices for many commodities, the 2024 oat market demonstrated that a large but manageable supply can create a stable and predictable pricing environment, protecting it from both major rallies and significant collapses.

2023

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Milling/Feed): $3.00 - $6.25/bu FOB farm/delivered
  • Dominant Theme: A burdensome and overwhelming supply glut that crushed prices and erased the premium between milling and feed quality oats for extended periods.
  • Pivotal Event: The January reports confirming a massive domestic supply, with buyers "full to the rafters," which set a persistently bearish tone for the entire year.
  • Market Sentiment: Overwhelmingly Bearish

Narrative

The oat market in 2023 was mired in a deep and prolonged depression, suffocated by a massive supply glut from the 2022 harvest. The year began with markets already quiet, but January data confirmed the severity of the situation: stocks were pegged at 3.6 MMT, the highest on record and up 91% from the previous year. This set a relentlessly bearish tone that persisted for the entire calendar year.

Buyer interest vanished. Millers were reported to be full until the new crop year and beyond, content to sit on the sidelines and take delivery of previously purchased contracts. This lack of demand caused prices to collapse. Bids for milling quality oats, which had been competitive, fell to levels near or even below feed oats, often hovering around the $4.00/bu mark. The premium for milling quality, the main incentive for growers, effectively disappeared for long stretches.

As the year progressed, the situation did not improve. Bids continued to soften, with feed oats trading in a $3.25 to $3.75/bu range. By late in the year, even with StatsCan confirming a record low 2023 planted area, the enormous carry-over from 2022 continued to weigh on the market. While some deferred bids for 2024 delivery offered a glimmer of hope, reaching towards $5.50-$6.00/bu, the spot market remained a place of minimal opportunity and depressed values, forcing many growers to carry expensive inventory or sell into the low-priced feed market simply for cash flow.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The crucial decision point was for the grower holding unpriced 2022-crop oats in the bin during the first quarter. The dilemma was whether to sell into the deteriorating feed market around $4.00/bu to generate cash flow and free up bin space, or to hold on, banking on a recovery in milling premiums that seemed increasingly unlikely.

  • Winners: Pragmatic growers who recognized the severity of the supply glut early on and sold into the feed market. While the price was disappointing, they generated cash flow, avoided prolonged storage costs and quality degradation risks, and freed up capital and space for the more profitable 2023 crop.
  • Losers: Growers who held onto their oats all year waiting for a significant price recovery. They incurred substantial carrying costs and opportunity costs, only to see the market remain stagnant or fall further, leaving them with the same poor marketing decision nine months later.

The Lasting Echo

The 2023 oat market was a classic lesson in supply-driven price destruction, proving that a record harvest, even in the face of steady demand, can create a market glut so severe it takes more than a full crop cycle to correct.

2022

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Old Crop Milling): Began the year at an incredible $9.50 - $10.00/bu, held strong through the spring, then began a steady decline, eventually falling to the $4.00 - $5.00/bu range post-harvest.
  • Price Range (New Crop): Contracts were available early at a historically strong $6.00 - $6.50/bu before softening in line with the spot market.
  • Dominant Theme: A market of two distinct halves: the first defined by extreme scarcity and high prices resulting from the 2021 drought, and the second defined by a return to abundance and a significant price correction as a much larger 2022 crop came to market.
  • Pivotal Event: The successful development of the 2022 oat crop under favorable growing conditions, which signaled the end of the scarcity premium and initiated a prolonged price decline.
  • Market Sentiment: Extremely bullish and tight, followed by a steady shift to bearish as supply concerns evaporated.

Narrative

The 2022 oat market was a perfect illustration of a classic commodity cycle. The first half of the year was the final chapter of the 2021 drought story, with incredibly tight supplies pushing milling oat prices to the rare territory of $9.50-$10.00/bu. Buyers were aggressive, and the market worked to incentivize a significant acreage increase by offering very attractive new crop contracts in the $6.00-$6.50/bu range.

However, the adage "high prices are the cure for high prices" proved true. The strong new crop bids, combined with favorable moisture across the Prairies, led to a much larger 2022 crop. As soon as the market grew confident in this new supply, the scarcity premium began to evaporate. Prices started a steady descent through the summer months, a slide that accelerated into harvest. By the fourth quarter, the market had been completely transformed, with bids settling in the $4.00-$5.00/bu range—a level that, while still decent historically, was a stark comedown from the highs seen just months before.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The year's crucial decision point was for the oat grower with unpriced 2021 crop in the bin. Their dilemma was whether to sell into the phenomenal $9.00-$10.00/bu market during the first half of the year or to hold on, believing the rally had further to run. The winners were those who recognized that these were historic, scarcity-driven prices and sold their remaining old crop while also locking in the excellent new crop bids before mid-year. The losers were those who held on too long, watching the value of their inventory get cut nearly in half as the market transitioned from scarcity to abundance.

The Lasting Echo

2022 was a dramatic demonstration of how quickly a market can pivot from drought-induced highs to supply-driven lows within a single growing season, rewarding decisive marketers and penalizing hesitation.

2021

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Milling): Started the year strong near $4.00/bu, rallied through the summer and fall to reach unbelievable highs of $9.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm.
  • Price Range (Feed): Followed the milling market higher, beginning near $3.50/bu and surging to trade in the $5.00-$8.00/bu range depending on quality and timing.
  • Dominant Theme: A severe North American production shortfall met with surging demand from both the human food and livestock feed sectors, creating a supply squeeze that launched prices to all-time records.
  • Pivotal Event: The realization in late summer that the drought had crippled the oat crop on both sides of the border, confirming that end-users would be facing a fierce battle for limited supply.
  • Market Sentiment: Started strong and bullish, and accelerated into a frantic, supply-driven rally from August through the end of the year.

Narrative

The 2021 oat market was a story of a supply shock layered on top of a structural demand shift. The year began with firm pricing, as milling bids near $4.00/bu were supported by strong export numbers and growing demand from new markets in Central and South America. The "oat milk" trend and general health-consciousness continued to bolster human food consumption.

This solid demand backdrop collided with the devastating summer drought. The oat crop, particularly in the southern Prairies and US Northern Plains, suffered significant yield losses and quality damage. As the grim harvest reality set in during August, the market ignited. Millers and feed users alike were faced with a dramatically smaller crop than anticipated, and a bidding war ensued.

Prices surged to previously unthinkable levels. Milling bids, which had been strong in the $4.00 range, blew past $5.00, then $6.00, and by the fourth quarter, were trading in a staggering range of $9.00 to $10.50/bu. The feed market was pulled along for the ride, with high-quality feed oats commanding bids of $7.00-$8.00/bu. The rally was so intense that buyers began offering aggressive new crop contracts for 2022, with bids of $6.00-$7.00/bu emerging to secure future acres. The year ended with the oat market completely repriced, reflecting a new reality of tight supply and robust, multi-channel demand.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key dilemma was for the end-user—the miller or feed compounder. Their choice was whether to aggressively cover their needs early in the summer as drought reports intensified, paying what seemed like high prices at the time ($5.00/bu), or to wait, hoping that harvest pressure would create buying opportunities. Those who waited were severely punished, forced to chase the market to its $10.00/bu peak. The winners were growers who had some semblance of a crop to sell and were patient enough to market it into the historic Q4 rally. The primary losers were buyers with poor coverage and any grower whose crop was a complete write-off.

The Lasting Echo

2021 demonstrated that the combination of a structural increase in human food demand and a classic weather-driven supply shock could elevate oats from a secondary cereal into a marquee commodity commanding record-shattering prices.

2020

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Milling): A wide, volatile range starting near $3.50/bu, falling to parity with feed near $2.50/bu post-harvest, then staging a major rally to finish the year over $4.25/bu delivered.
  • Price Range (Feed): A more stable range, generally trading between $2.25/bu and $3.00/bu.
  • Dominant Theme: A volatile year for milling oats, characterized by a post-harvest price collapse where it lost its premium to feed, followed by a powerful late-year recovery as supplies tightened.
  • Pivotal Event: The fourth-quarter rally in milling oat prices, driven by strong US demand and a realization that the large harvested acreage did not translate into an oversupply of high-quality product.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish post-harvest, turning sharply Bullish in the final quarter.

Narrative

The 2020 oat market delivered a rollercoaster ride, particularly for milling grades. The year began with strong prices supported by quality concerns from the 2019 harvest. However, as a large 2020 crop went into the ground and came off with good quality, the market dynamic inverted. At harvest, a glut of supply hit the market, causing milling bids to collapse to around $2.50/bu FOB—a price that was often at parity with, or even at a discount to, heavy feed oats. This unusual situation, where quality offered no financial reward, discouraged sales from milling oat producers.

This set the stage for a dramatic fourth-quarter reversal. As buyers worked through the initial harvest glut, they found that securing ongoing supplies of high-quality milling oats was more difficult than anticipated. Strong demand, particularly from the US, met with grower reluctance to sell at low values. The result was a sharp rally, with delivered bids into Manitoba climbing from the low $3.00s to over $4.25/bu by year-end. This rapid recovery provided a fantastic marketing opportunity for growers who had stored their crop rather than selling into the weak harvest market.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The critical decision was for a grower with high-quality milling oats in the bin at harvest. The dilemma was whether to sell at harvest, when milling bids were indistinguishable from feed and movement was slow, or to store the crop and bet on a seasonal recovery of the milling premium. The decisive winners were growers who stored their oats, resisting the urge to sell into the historically poor pricing environment at harvest. They were rewarded with a price rally of more than a dollar per bushel in the final quarter. The losers were those who sold milling-spec oats for feed value just to create cash flow.

The Lasting Echo

The 2020 oat market showed that when a quality premium disappears at harvest, grower selling resistance can create an artificial supply shortage that fuels a powerful price recovery later in the year.

2019

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Milling): $3.00 - $4.10/bu FOB farm/delivered, with strength concentrated in Manitoba-accessible regions.
  • Price Range (Feed): $2.25 - $3.00/bu FOB farm.
  • Dominant Theme: A supply-driven market where tightening stocks and strong demand from multiple channels created some of the best prices of the year for both milling and feed quality.
  • Pivotal Event: The realization early in the year that 2018 production had decreased, leading to tighter supplies and a rush for both milling and feed coverage that sustained strong pricing through the spring.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish. From the start of the year, the sentiment was positive due to a smaller crop, lower carry-in stocks, and robust demand from both US and domestic buyers.

Narrative

The oat market was a consistent bright spot in 2019, characterized by tight supplies and buoyant prices. The year opened with a clear supply issue: 2018 production was down 8%, and stocks were shrinking. This fundamental tightness drove strong demand from all corners. Millers were active, with bids reaching and exceeding $4.00/bu delivered into Manitoba for top quality product.

Simultaneously, an unusually strong feed market developed. With barley prices firm, feedlots and ranchers turned to oats as a cheaper substitute, pushing feed oat bids to an impressive $2.75-$3.00/bu FOB farm—a great value for off-spec product. This strength persisted for much of the year. While a larger 2019 crop was anticipated and eventually harvested, a difficult, wet harvest season created new concerns about the quality of the incoming supply, helping to support prices into year-end.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key dilemma was for the grower with oats in the bin early in the year. They faced a choice between selling into the strong milling market, which required meeting specific quality criteria and often involved longer delivery distances, or capitalizing on the unusually powerful and local feed market. Growers in western regions with freight disadvantages to Manitoba processors were clear winners by selling into the local feed market, capturing excellent value without the logistical costs and quality risk of shipping east. Growers closer to the milling base who had top quality product won by capturing bids over $4.00/bu, but the real story was the exceptional profitability of the feed market.

The Lasting Echo

The 2019 oat market highlighted its unique dual-demand structure, proving that a strong pull from the feed sector can create powerful pricing opportunities independent of milling demand.

2018

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Milling #2CW): $2.30 - $3.40/bu FOB farm, with significant late-year strength
  • Price Range (Feed): $2.00 - $2.50/bu FOB farm
  • Dominant Theme: A quiet, range-bound market for most of the year that experienced a dramatic price rally late in the fourth quarter due to quality concerns arising from a delayed and wet harvest.
  • Pivotal Event: The poor harvest weather across the prairies in September and October, which created widespread supply concerns for high-quality milling oats and sparked a late-year price surge of nearly a dollar per bushel.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral and sleepy for most of the year, turning sharply bullish in the final quarter.

Narrative

For most of 2018, the oat market was the definition of quiet. Milling grades were stuck in a tight sub-$2.50/bu range, with little to inspire either buyers or sellers. The market drifted sideways for months, well-supplied and with lackluster demand. However, the narrative shifted dramatically in the final quarter. A wet, snowy, and severely delayed harvest across the prairies sparked widespread concern about the quality and availability of good #2 CW milling oats. This supply scare woke the market from its slumber, driving bids sharply higher. Prices in key demand areas surged well above $3.00/bu, rewarding growers who still had high-quality, dry product in the bin.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The critical choice was for the oat grower in late summer. The dilemma was whether to sell into the sleepy, sub-$2.50/bu market to ensure movement and generate cash flow, or to hold inventory through harvest, betting on a weather event or other catalyst. Those who held were handsomely rewarded by the harvest-delay rally, capturing prices nearly a dollar per bushel higher than mid-year values. Those who sold early for logistical reasons missed the year's single biggest opportunity in the oat market.

The Lasting Echo

The 2018 oat market was a powerful lesson in how a seemingly stable market can be completely upended by harvest weather, proving that late-season supply shocks can create significant opportunities for patient sellers.

2017

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Milling #2CW): $2.40/bu to $2.60/bu FOB farm
  • Price Range (Feed): $1.75/bu to $2.25/bu FOB farm
  • Dominant Theme: A quiet market that slowly absorbed harvest pressure and saw a modest price recovery in the fall.
  • Pivotal Event: Renewed buyer interest post-harvest, which firmed up bids for both milling and feed quality oats after a long period of stagnation.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral. The market showed no strong trend but demonstrated a solid floor post-harvest.

Narrative

The oat market spent much of 2017 in a quiet, sideways slumber. Strong yields, particularly out of Manitoba, created ample supply that weighed on prices through the harvest period. Bids for feed oats languished near $2.00/bu, while milling oat bids were spotty and uninspiring.

However, as harvest wrapped up and grain was put into the bin, the market began to show signs of life. In October and November, buyer interest returned. Bids for #2CW milling oats firmed up to a more respectable $2.50/bu picked up, with strength concentrated in southern Saskatchewan due to freight advantages eastward. The feed market also saw a notable improvement, with bids climbing as high as $2.25/bu for heavy, dry oats. While not a dramatic rally, the post-harvest firming provided a welcome improvement over the harvest lows.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The oat grower's dilemma was a classic case of timing the post-harvest market. The choice was to sell off the combine into a weak, harvest-pressured market for around $2.00/bu for feed or less for milling, or to incur the costs of storage and wait for demand to return. The winners were the patient producers who held their grain until October/November, capturing a price improvement of 20-25% as buyers stepped back into the market. The losers were those who sold at the harvest lows, missing the seasonal recovery.

The Lasting Echo

Even in a well-supplied market, post-harvest demand can provide a reliable, if modest, pricing lift for growers who have the bin space and patience to wait out the seasonal low.

Disclaimer: My analytical process is a hybrid model, combining customized AI tools with manual expertise. The AI is trained for initial data synthesis and signal detection, leaving the crucial work of strategic interpretation and final analysis to me.