2025

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Yellow): $0.42/lb to $0.48/lb FOB farm.
  • Price Range (Brown): $0.31/lb to $0.44/lb FOB farm.
  • Price Range (Oriental): $0.30/lb to $0.44/lb FOB farm.
  • Dominant Theme: A quiet market that awoke mid-year on news of a dramatic drop in seeded acreage, leading to a firming price trend despite slow export demand.
  • Pivotal Event: StatsCan's March planting intentions report, which forecast a staggering 50% drop in mustard acres, immediately putting a floor under prices.

Narrative

The mustard market began 2025 in a quiet, stable phase. Prices were steady, with yellow mustard trading in the 42-44 cent/lb range and both brown and oriental varieties in the low 30s. The market was clouded by uncertainty around potential U.S. tariffs and competition from the Black Sea, which kept buyers cautious and trade activity light.

The entire dynamic shifted in March with the release of StatsCan’s planting intentions. The report projected a shocking 50% reduction in Canadian mustard acres, falling to just 289,000 acres . This news immediately injected strength into the market, putting a firm floor under prices and creating a more optimistic outlook. While export demand remained slow, with Russia continuing to supply the EU at a discount, the prospect of a much smaller North American crop began to drive values higher.

By summer and into harvest, prices for all varieties had firmed up. New crop yellow bids reached 48 cents/lb, and brown and oriental climbed into the low 40s. The market narrative had transformed from one of demand uncertainty to one of supply scarcity.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The crucial dilemma was for the grower deciding their 2025 seeding mix before the March intentions report. The choice was to stick with mustard, despite its lackluster pricing in late 2024, or switch to other crops that seemed more profitable at the time, like green lentils. The clear winners were the contrarian growers who committed to mustard acres. They benefited from the significant price rally driven by the acreage collapse they were a part of. The losers were those who abandoned mustard, chasing other crops, only to watch from the sidelines as mustard became one of the few commodities with a positive pricing story in the latter half of the year.

The Lasting Echo

In specialty crops, a collective shift in acreage is the most powerful market mover, capable of turning a forgotten commodity into a star performer overnight.

2024

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Yellow): Began the year strong around $0.75-$0.78/lb before correcting significantly, settling in a range of $0.40-$0.55/lb for the latter half of the year.
  • Price Range (Brown/Oriental): Started in the $0.50/lb range before falling to the low $0.40s and eventually settling near $0.30/lb.
  • Dominant Theme: A significant price correction across all varieties after the highs of previous years, as supply caught up with and surpassed immediate demand.
  • Pivotal Event: The steady decline in new crop contract bids throughout the first quarter, signaling to growers that the bull market was officially over and a new, lower price reality had set in.
  • Market Sentiment: Bearish. The market spent the entire year softening as it rebalanced from a period of scarcity to one of adequate supply.

Narrative

The 2024 mustard market was the inevitable hangover after a multi-year price party. Having been a top performer, the market entered the year with a softer tone that quickly accelerated into a major downward correction. Yellow mustard, the strongest of the three, began the year in the high 70-cent range but had retreated to the 50s and even 40s by year-end. Brown and oriental mustard experienced an even steeper decline, falling from 50 cents down into the low 30s. The narrative was a classic case of high prices curing high prices; comfortable carry-over stocks and competition from the Black Sea region meant buyers no longer had to bid aggressively. With spot bids in constant flux and new crop values softening, the strategy for growers shifted from chasing rallies to finding pockets of stability to move inventory in a falling market.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key dilemma belonged to the grower holding high-cost, unpriced mustard from the 2023 harvest. As prices fell through the winter and spring, they had to decide whether to accept the new market reality and sell at a lower price than anticipated, or to hold on, hoping for a return to the historic highs. Selling meant salvaging a decent, if not spectacular, profit and freeing up cash flow. Holding meant risking a further price collapse as new, cheaper crop approached. The winners were the pragmatic sellers who moved their product early in the year before the steepest declines occurred. The losers were those who held on too long, watching their inventory value erode month after month as the market continued its slide.

The Lasting Echo

The 2024 mustard market was a textbook example of the cyclical nature of specialty crops, demonstrating that no bull run lasts forever and a price correction is always on the horizon.

2023

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Spot, all types): $0.55 - $1.30/lb FOB farm
  • Price Range (New Crop, all types): $0.52 - $0.85/lb FOB farm (with AOG)
  • Dominant Theme: A classic boom-and-bust cycle, where record-high prices in the first quarter incentivized a massive acreage increase that led to a sharp price correction.
  • Pivotal Event: The aggressive pullback in new crop bids starting in late January, which signaled that buyers were becoming saturated with contracted acres and that the seller's market was rapidly coming to an end.
  • Market Sentiment: Extremely Bullish turning Sharply Bearish

Narrative

The mustard market in 2023 was a textbook example of "high prices cure high prices." The year opened with extreme strength, a continuation of the tight supply situation from the previous season. Spot prices for all varieties—yellow, brown, and oriental—were commanding incredible values, trading between $1.18 and $1.30 per pound. This bullishness extended to new crop contracts, with buyers initially offering exceptional prices, such as yellow at $0.85/lb and brown at $0.80/lb, all with a 10 bu/acre Act of God clause.

This historically lucrative pricing triggered a massive acreage response from growers. By late January, the narrative began to shift dramatically. As buyers successfully booked a substantial portion of their needs, they began to pull back their bids on a weekly, if not daily, basis. New crop prices for brown mustard fell from $0.80/lb to the $0.70s, then into the $0.60s. Spot prices, while slower to react, also began to erode under the weight of anticipated heavy supplies.

By mid-year, the market had completely flipped from a seller's to a buyer's market. Spot bids had fallen by over $0.30/lb from their peak, and new crop values had settled in the $0.50-$0.60/lb range for brown and oriental, and the $0.70s/lb for yellow. Favourable growing conditions in many areas solidified the expectation of a large crop, keeping prices subdued through harvest. The year ended with a large spread between spot yellow (mid-80s) and other varieties (60s), but the overall market tone was one of adequate supply and cautious buying.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The definitive dilemma of the year was for the mustard grower in January, facing new crop bids at or near record highs. The choice was whether to aggressively lock in these exceptional prices and guarantee profit, or to contract only a minimal amount, betting that the historically tight spot market would rally even further.

  • Winners: Growers who acted decisively in the first quarter. They contracted a significant portion of their expected production at or near the peak, locking in some of the best margins available on the Prairies. They were immune to the subsequent price collapse.
  • Losers: Growers who held off on new crop contracting, believing the spot market rally had more room to run. They watched new crop bids evaporate and were ultimately forced to either accept much lower contract prices or carry unpriced production into a well-supplied and bearish market environment.

The Lasting Echo

The 2023 mustard market was a powerful demonstration that in agricultural cycles, record prices are not just a reward but also a potent signal that triggers the very production response that will eventually end the bull run.

2022

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Old Crop): A historic price explosion. Brown mustard rallied from ~$1.40/lb to over $2.30/lb. Yellow rallied from ~$1.40/lb to over $2.00/lb. Oriental traded from $1.00/lb to over $1.15/lb.
  • Price Range (New Crop): Bids were pulled aggressively higher all year, starting in the 70-cent range and rallying to $1.00/lb or higher for all varieties to secure acres.
  • Dominant Theme: A severe, global supply-driven price surge of historic proportions, as the market desperately tried to buy acres and secure any remaining old crop tonnes.
  • Pivotal Event: The convergence of a drought-decimated 2021 North American crop with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, another key producing region, which eliminated any alternative supply and triggered a speculative frenzy.
  • Market Sentiment: Extremely bullish; a market in a state of supply panic, willing to pay nearly any price to secure product.

Narrative

The 2022 mustard market was nothing short of historic. It began the year already on fire, with prices for all varieties at levels rarely seen due to the catastrophic 2021 drought across North America. This scarcity-driven rally then collided with a massive geopolitical shock: Russia's invasion of Ukraine. With two of the world's key mustard-producing regions facing severe supply disruptions, the market went into a full-blown panic.

Bids for remaining old crop exploded, climbing week after week to levels that shattered all previous records. Brown mustard traded above $2.00/lb, and yellow was not far behind. The market's primary function shifted to incentivizing a massive acreage increase for the 2022 crop. New crop contract bids, which already seemed strong in the 70-cent range, were aggressively pushed higher, eventually surpassing the once-unthinkable $1.00/lb threshold for all varieties, complete with Act of God clauses. It was a textbook example of an inelastic market reacting to a severe supply shock, resulting in a price rally that will be referenced for years to come.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The most acute dilemma was faced by the global food manufacturer and condiment producer. Their stark choice was whether to pay the astronomical spot prices for mustard seed to keep their production lines running and maintain market share, or to halt production, attempt to reformulate products, and risk ceding ground to competitors. The winners were companies with deep enough inventory to weather the worst of the price spike or those with the brand power to successfully pass on the soaring costs to consumers. The losers were those caught with no inventory who faced crippling margin compression or production shutdowns.

The Lasting Echo

2022's mustard market provided a dramatic, real-world lesson in how a severe and concurrent supply shock across key growing regions can trigger a price explosion that defies all historical norms and fundamentally reshapes the economics of an entire value chain.

2021

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Yellow): Began the year at a strong $0.40/lb, embarked on a truly historic rally to trade at $1.25-$1.35/lb by year-end.
  • Price Range (Brown): Opened near $0.35/lb, matching yellow's incredible climb to also trade at the $1.25-$1.35/lb level.
  • Price Range (Oriental): Started around $0.30/lb, and while it lagged the other two, still posted a massive rally to reach the $1.00/lb mark.
  • Dominant Theme: A catastrophic production failure in the world's primary export region (Prairies & US Northern Plains) created a desperate supply shortage, resulting in a price explosion that shattered all historical records.
  • Pivotal Event: The realization during the summer harvest that drought and heat had decimated yields, confirming that global buyers would be facing a severe, unavoidable shortage.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish all year, transitioning to a state of supply panic from August onwards, with a sense that price was no object for buyers needing to cover commitments.

Narrative

The 2021 mustard market was, without exaggeration, a once-in-a-generation event. The year started on a very strong foundation, with tight carry-in stocks already supporting yellow bids at 40 cents/lb and brown at 35 cents/lb. Buyers were actively offering attractive new crop contracts to secure acres in a competitive environment.

This strong but orderly market was completely upended by the summer's devastating drought, which hit the core mustard growing regions of North America with brutal intensity. As combines began to roll in late summer, yield reports were universally poor, confirming the trade's worst fears: a massive crop failure was at hand.

What followed was a supply panic of epic proportions. With global buyers facing a gaping hole in their supply chains, prices began a vertical ascent. Bids blew past 50 cents, then 60, then 80. By the fourth quarter, the market had entered truly unbelievable territory. Yellow and brown mustard bids converged and soared past the $1.00/lb barrier, eventually trading in a range of $1.25-$1.35/lb. Oriental mustard, while initially lagging, was pulled into the vacuum, surging to $1.00/lb as well. The market was no longer functioning to find a clearing price, but to allocate severely limited bushels to the most desperate buyers, making 2021 the most volatile and highest-priced year in modern mustard history.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The stakeholder's dilemma was acute for both growers and buyers. For the grower, the choice was whether to sell at record-breaking-but-still-climbing prices of 60 or 70 cents, or to hold on for the mythical $1.00/lb mark, all while having very few bushels to sell. For the buyer, the dilemma was when to accept reality and pay up, versus waiting and hoping for a market collapse that never came. The undisputed winners were the few growers who managed to produce a crop and sold into the dollar-plus market. The biggest losers were unprepared buyers and condiment companies who were short and had to pay prices that completely destroyed their margins to keep product on the shelf.

The Lasting Echo

The great mustard rally of 2021 was a stark, unforgettable lesson in supply chain vulnerability, proving that when a niche crop with few global production alternatives suffers a catastrophic failure, prices can be driven to levels that defy imagination.

2020

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Yellow): A steady $0.38-$0.40/lb, with new crop 2021 bids appearing at $0.42/lb.
  • Price Range (Brown): Began near $0.28/lb, firming to $0.32-$0.34/lb late in the year, with new crop 2021 bids reaching $0.35/lb.
  • Price Range (Oriental): Began near $0.25/lb, climbing to $0.28-$0.30/lb by year-end, with new crop 2021 bids hitting $0.30/lb.
  • Dominant Theme: A quiet market transformed by a surprising government report that revealed a much tighter supply situation than previously assumed, supporting prices despite sluggish demand.
  • Pivotal Event: The June 29th StatsCan report, which slashed estimated seeded area from 395,000 to just 257,000 acres, fundamentally changing the market's supply outlook.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral and stable, shifting to Firmly Bullish after the acreage report.

Narrative

For the first half of 2020, the mustard market was a picture of stability. Prices held in a predictable range, with yellow trading near $0.40/lb and brown and oriental varieties at significant discounts. Demand from overseas, particularly Europe, was sluggish, hampered by COVID-19 restrictions that impacted sporting events and restaurants—key consumers of yellow mustard. Attractive new crop bids were available, but the market lacked a compelling narrative.

That story changed completely on June 29th. A stunningly low seeded acreage estimate from Statistics Canada shattered the market's perception of a comfortable supply. The report indicated acres were down dramatically, suggesting a much tighter balance sheet for the coming year. While this news didn't cause an explosive price rally due to the persistent slow demand, it put a firm floor under the market and created a bullish undertone. Through the second half of the year, prices for all varieties began to creep higher, particularly for brown and oriental. By December, the combination of lower-than-expected production and concerns about 2021 acres led to exceptionally strong new crop contract bids, with brown mustard reaching an impressive $0.35/lb.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key decision fell to a grower finalizing their seeding plans in the spring. The dilemma was whether to book a new crop mustard contract at what were already solid historical prices, or to plant a different crop, assuming the mustard market would remain flat. The clear winners were the growers who contracted mustard acres. They were not only guaranteed a good price but were also positioned perfectly to benefit from the bullish sentiment after the June acreage report, either by having the confidence to hold for better spot prices or by securing even more acres for 2021 at premium values. Those who opted out of mustard missed a low-risk, high-reward opportunity.

The Lasting Echo

The 2020 mustard market demonstrated how a single, credible data release can completely reframe a commodity's outlook, creating price support even in the face of weak immediate demand.

2019

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Yellow): $0.34 - $0.40/lb FOB farm.
  • Price Range (Brown): $0.28 - $0.30/lb FOB farm.
  • Price Range (Oriental): $0.22 - $0.28/lb FOB farm, with a persistent discount for Cutlass varieties.
  • Dominant Theme: An island of stability in a sea of market turmoil, with firm, attractive prices holding steady throughout the year, making it a standout cropping option.
  • Pivotal Event: The release of new crop contract prices in January that were largely on par with spot values, signaling strong underlying demand and providing growers with a profitable and predictable alternative to other struggling commodities.
  • Market Sentiment: Stable to Bullish. Consistent export demand and expectations of a smaller 2019 crop kept sentiment firm, especially for yellow mustard, which saw prices strengthen late in the year.

Narrative

In a year of geopolitical shocks and harvest disasters, the mustard market was a bastion of calm and profitability. Prices across all varieties began the year at strong levels and showed remarkable stability. Yellow mustard traded consistently in the $0.34-$0.35/lb range for months before climbing to $0.38-$0.40/lb late in the year. Brown mustard held firm near $0.30/lb, while oriental traded in the mid $0.20 s.

This stability made mustard a very attractive option for growers making their 2019 planting decisions, especially as markets like canola and lentils struggled. New crop bids came out early and were nearly identical to spot prices, offering a rare combination of profitability and price security. While the market was never explosive, it was consistently solid. A difficult growing season with a delayed harvest led to expectations of a smaller crop, which provided underlying support and helped yellow mustard prices rally into year-end. Throughout 2019, mustard was a low-drama, high-performance crop.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The stakeholder facing the year's most interesting dilemma was the grower finalizing their seeding plans in the spring. With the canola market in turmoil following the Chinese ban, they had to decide whether to stick with their planned rotation or to pivot acres into mustard, a crop with lower agronomic flexibility and yield potential but significantly better price stability. The winners were those who made the switch, trading the volatility and downside risk of canola for the predictable and profitable returns offered by mustard contracts. They successfully used mustard as a defensive hedge in a deeply uncertain market environment.

The Lasting Echo

The 2019 mustard market demonstrated that in a year of extreme uncertainty, price stability can be the most valuable commodity of all.

2018

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Spot Brown): $0.30 - $0.46/lb FOB farm
  • Price Range (Spot Yellow): $0.33 - $0.43/lb FOB farm
  • Price Range (Spot Oriental): $0.25 - $0.34/lb FOB farm
  • Dominant Theme: A tale of two markets: an exceptionally strong spot market driven by tight old crop supplies, alongside attractive new crop contracting opportunities that provided a profitable alternative to other struggling crops.
  • Pivotal Event: The early-year surge in spot brown mustard prices to the mid-40 cent range, signaling an acute supply shortage and creating a significant premium over other varieties.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish, especially on the spot market early in the year, which translated into strong new crop contract values.

Narrative

In a year where many specialty crops struggled, mustard stood out as a beacon of profitability. The market was defined by a pronounced tightness in old crop supplies, which sent spot prices, particularly for brown mustard, soaring into the mid-40 cent range early in the year. This strength created very attractive new crop contracting opportunities, with yellow and brown mustard both locking in at well over $0.30/lb. This prompted many growers to shift acres into mustard, seeking refuge from the collapsing pulse markets. While prices for all varieties softened from their peaks as the year progressed and new crop supply became a reality, mustard consistently offered one of the best returns on the prairies, serving as a critical and reliable cash flow generator.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key decision rested with the specialty crop grower finalizing their seeding plan. The choice was to stick with a traditional crop like lentils despite collapsing prices or to pivot to mustard, capitalizing on new crop contracts in the mid-to-high 30s. Growers who made the switch to mustard were the clear winners, securing one of the year's best profit margins. Those who remained loyal to lentils, hoping for a market rebound, faced a year of breakeven results or significant losses.

The Lasting Echo

The 2018 mustard market highlighted the strategic value of crop diversification, proving that tight supplies in a smaller-acre crop can create a powerful pocket of profitability even when larger commodity markets are in decline.

2017

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Spot Yellow/Brown #1): $0.35/lb to $0.45/lb FOB farm
  • Price Range (Spot Oriental #1): $0.28/lb to $0.34/lb FOB farm
  • Price Range (New Crop Yellow #1): $0.38/lb to $0.42/lb FOB farm
  • Dominant Theme: Exceptionally strong and stable pricing, providing a highly profitable safe haven from the collapsing pulse markets.
  • Pivotal Event: The emergence of new crop 2018 contracts with Act of God clauses at historically high values, prompting a significant number of growers to lock in production.
  • Market Sentiment: Resoundingly Bullish. The market showed sustained strength in both spot and new crop values, making it the star performer of the specialty crop space.

Narrative

While other commodity markets struggled, mustard was the unqualified success story of 2017. Prices were not just strong; they were historically robust and remarkably stable. Spot prices for yellow and brown mustard climbed steadily through the fall, reaching an impressive 43-45¢/lb range for deferred movement, while oriental held firm in the low-to-mid 30s.

This strength was driven by solid, routine demand against a backdrop of lower yields in many areas. The most significant development was the market's confidence in the future. Buyers began offering very aggressive new crop contracts for 2018, with yellow mustard priced up to 42¢/lb and brown up to 38¢/lb, all picked up on farm with an Act of God clause. This provided growers a golden opportunity to de-risk their 2018 production at highly profitable levels, making mustard the go-to alternative for those looking to shift acres away from the turmoil in the pea and lentil markets.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The crucial dilemma fell to the prairie grower planning their 2018 seeding intentions. They faced the choice of staying with traditional crops like lentils or peas, which had collapsed, or shifting significant acreage to mustard to capitalize on the high new crop prices. The winners were the growers who diversified their portfolio by locking in mustard acres, guaranteeing strong returns for the year ahead. The risk for the collective was that if too many growers made this logical choice, the resulting surge in production could weigh on prices in the long term.

The Lasting Echo

In a year of widespread market distress, a single specialty crop with strong, independent fundamentals can become a critical—and highly profitable—lifeline for farm balance sheets.

Disclaimer: My analytical process is a hybrid model, combining customized AI tools with manual expertise. The AI is trained for initial data synthesis and signal detection, leaving the crucial work of strategic interpretation and final analysis to me.