2025

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Red): $0.27/lb to $0.36/lb FOB farm.
  • Price Range (Large Green): $0.31/lb to $0.62/lb FOB farm.
  • Price Range (Small Green): $0.26/lb to $0.55/lb FOB farm.
  • Dominant Theme: A market of divergence, where green lentil prices started strong but steadily declined on expectations of massive acreage increases, while red lentils remained more stable.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish turning Bearish for greens; stable for reds.

Narrative

The 2025 lentil market was a clear story of divergence between green and red varieties. The year began with very strong values for green lentils, as No. 2 large greens traded as high as 60 cents/lb and small greens fetched up to 55 cents/lb. This strength was driven by good demand and a perception of tightening supplies. However, these high prices incentivized a significant shift in planting intentions.

By late winter, as new crop contracts emerged, it became clear that a substantial increase in green lentil acreage was underway. Buyers, anticipating a much larger supply, became cautious. This led to a steady erosion of both old and new crop green lentil prices throughout the spring and summer. By August, large greens were trading in the low 30s and small greens in the high 20s.

In contrast, the red lentil market was a model of stability. Prices held in a consistent range of 32-36 cents/lb for most of the year. This was supported by a smaller Australian crop, lower Canadian stocks, and expectations that red lentil acres would decline in Canada due to disease concerns. While export demand was described as slow to steady rather than aggressive, the balanced supply outlook prevented the price collapse seen in the green lentil market.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The stakeholder facing the most critical decision was the grower planning their pulse acres for 2025. They saw the exceptionally high prices for green lentils early in the year and had to decide whether to chase that market, betting the strength would last, or to stick with the less spectacular but more stable returns offered by red lentils. The growers who recognized the acreage signal and either locked in new crop green lentil contracts very early or pivoted to red lentils were the winners. They avoided the significant price decline in greens. The losers were the growers who went all-in on green lentils without forward pricing, only to see the value of their crop diminish steadily as the market priced in the massive supply increase they had contributed to.

The Lasting Echo

Today’s high prices are often the catalyst for tomorrow’s oversupply, and the smartest players in the market sell into the story, not the reality.

2024

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Greens): Large green lentils were exceptionally strong, trading from $0.72/lb up to a peak of $0.82/lb. Small greens followed, trading from $0.70/lb up to $0.80/lb.
  • Price Range (Reds): Red lentils were under constant pressure, starting around $0.36/lb and softening to lows near $0.28/lb by late summer.
  • Dominant Theme: A sharply divided market. Green lentil values soared due to North American supply dominance, while red lentils were weighed down by intense global competition.
  • Pivotal Event: The historic widening of the price spread between green and red lentils, which incentivized a massive acreage shift and created a shortage of green lentil seed.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish for Greens, Bearish for Reds. This created a clear winner and loser within the same crop category.

Narrative

The 2024 lentil market was a tale of two vastly different cities. The green lentil market was a raging bull, with prices for both large and small greens climbing to remarkable highs. Large greens started in the low 70-cent range and surged to over 80 cents by February, driven by the fact that Canada and the U.S. are the world's primary suppliers. This strength translated into historically high new crop contract prices of 55-60 cents, sparking a frenzy among growers to secure seed and acres. Conversely, the red lentil market was a bearish struggle. Starting in the mid-30s, red lentil prices faced relentless pressure from cheaper supplies out of Australia and the Black Sea, which eroded Canada's market share in key destinations like India and Turkey. This divergence created one of the widest price spreads between green and red lentils ever seen, fundamentally reshaping planting decisions across the Prairies.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The critical stakeholder was the pulse grower planning their 2024 seeding. They faced a strategic choice: chase the record-high new crop prices for green lentils, which meant competing for scarce and expensive seed while betting the price would hold against a surge in acres, or stick with the lower-priced red lentils, hoping for a market rebound. The winners were the growers who managed to secure green lentil seed and locked in a portion of their production on the extraordinarily high new crop contracts, guaranteeing exceptional margins. The losers were unhedged red lentil growers who saw their potential returns dwindle as global competition intensified, and those who couldn't find green lentil seed to participate in the rally.

The Lasting Echo

The year 2024 starkly illustrated the geopolitical fragmentation of the lentil market, proving that North America's dominance in green lentil supply can create a bull market completely detached from the competitive pressures facing reds.

2023

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Reds, #2): $0.28 - $0.40/lb FOB farm/delivered
  • Price Range (Large Greens, #2): $0.42 - $0.73/lb FOB farm/delivered
  • Price Range (Small Greens, #1/#2): $0.38 - $0.70/lb FOB farm/delivered
  • Dominant Theme: A sharply bifurcated market where green lentil values exploded due to tight supplies and strong demand, while red lentils languished under the weight of international competition.
  • Pivotal Event: The ongoing political dispute between Canada and India that emerged in September, casting a cloud of uncertainty over red lentil exports and further cementing the price advantage for green lentils.
  • Market Sentiment: Bifurcated (Strongly Bullish for Greens, Bearish-to-Neutral for Reds)

Narrative

The 2023 lentil market was a tale of two very different crops. Red lentils began the year on the defensive, with prices in the low-to-mid $0.30s/lb range under constant pressure from a large and readily available Australian crop. Reports of a good Indian crop and competitive Turkish offers further subdued the market. Bids slipped below $0.30/lb at times before finding stability, but the upside remained capped. A late-year rally pushed values toward $0.40/lb, but the ongoing diplomatic tension between Canada and India injected significant uncertainty, and demand remained tentative.

In stark contrast, green lentils embarked on a powerful bull run. Starting the year with a significant premium over reds—large and small greens were already trading around $0.50/lb—the market narrative was one of tightening supplies and robust demand. Concerns over India's pigeon pea crop provided a steady tailwind. Prices for all green varieties climbed steadily throughout the year. By late summer and into the fall, large greens were trading above $0.60/lb, eventually reaching over $0.70/lb. Small greens followed suit, rising from $0.50/lb to over $0.65/lb. Medium (Richlea) greens also saw very strong pricing, trading above $0.45/lb USD.

This enormous and widening spread between green and red varieties was the year's defining characteristic. New crop contract bids reflected this divergence, with greens offering historically high values ($0.45-$0.50/lb+) that incentivized a shift in acres away from the less profitable reds.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The critical decision point belonged to the lentil grower during seeding season. Faced with a massive price premium for green lentils over reds, the dilemma was whether to shift acres into greens to chase the higher value, or to stick with their traditional red lentil rotation, betting on a market rebound.

  • Winners: Growers who pivoted to green lentils. They capitalized on a powerful bull market, locking in exceptional new crop prices and benefiting from a spot market that continued to rally throughout the year. They captured one of the best profitability opportunities on the Prairies in 2023.
  • Losers: Growers who remained heavily concentrated in red lentils. While prices weren't disastrous, they significantly underperformed greens, leaving substantial potential revenue unrealized and exposing them to the geopolitical risk of the India trade dispute.

The Lasting Echo

The dramatic price divergence between red and green lentils served as a powerful lesson in how intra-crop spreads can become the single most important driver of profitability, far outweighing the general direction of the pulse complex itself.

2022

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Reds): Opened near 45 cents/lb, corrected to the high 30s, rallied back above 40 cents, and then gradually softened to the low 30-cent range by year-end. New crop bids followed a similar arc.
  • Price Range (Large Greens): Maintained significant strength, opening above 60 cents/lb, correcting to the low 50s, but consistently trading at a massive premium to reds throughout the year, ending in the low 50s.
  • Dominant Theme: A tale of two markets, with stubbornly strong green lentil prices contrasting with a more volatile and pressured red lentil market facing stiff Australian competition.
  • Pivotal Event: India's surprise announcement in February that it was removing its import tariff, which provided a significant, albeit temporary, price rally and injected fresh volatility into the market.
  • Market Sentiment: Mixed and volatile; bullish for greens due to tighter perceived supplies, but more cautious for reds due to global competition.

Narrative

The 2022 lentil market was a study in contrasts, defined by the massive price spread between green and red varieties. Large greens began the year at extraordinary levels above 60 cents/lb and, despite a correction, maintained their strength, consistently trading in the 50-cent range. This resilience was fueled by perceptions of tighter global supplies and steady demand. In contrast, red lentils started strong near 45 cents/lb but faced immediate pressure from a large and competitive Australian crop, leading to a quicker and deeper price correction.

The entire complex was shaken in February when India unexpectedly announced the removal of its import tariff. This news sparked a sharp rally, pulling red lentil bids back above 40 cents/lb and providing a floor for greens. However, the rally was tempered by the reality of ample Australian supply. As the year progressed and a better Canadian crop developed, greens held their value more effectively while reds gradually softened, settling in the low 30-cent range. The market closed the year with green lentils still holding a historically wide premium, a direct reflection of their distinct supply and demand dynamics.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The critical decision point was for the international lentil trader immediately following India's tariff removal. The dilemma was whether to go long on Canadian lentils, betting that the policy change would trigger a sustained buying spree from the subcontinent, or to remain cautious, aware that a large Australian crop was still readily available to fill that demand. The winners were traders who astutely played the short-term rally for quick profits without getting caught with high-priced inventory. The losers were those who either overcommitted, expecting a longer rally, or remained too timid and missed the buying window entirely.

The Lasting Echo

2022 simultaneously highlighted the immense power of Indian trade policy to reshape market sentiment overnight and cemented the reality that Australian production is now a permanent, formidable competitor to Canadian lentil exports.

2021

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Reds): Started near $0.25/lb, rallied to a peak of $0.55/lb post-harvest before settling in the high 40-cent range.
  • Price Range (Large Greens): Opened around $0.34/lb, surged past $0.40/lb, then $0.50/lb, peaking near $0.65/lb in the fall.
  • Price Range (Small Greens): Followed a similar trajectory, starting near $0.28/lb and climbing to trade over $0.60/lb.
  • Dominant Theme: A market driven to incredible heights by a severe North American production shortfall, with prices for all varieties more than doubling as buyers scrambled to cover needs.
  • Pivotal Event: The StatsCan report in late summer confirming a devastatingly small crop, which erased any lingering doubts about the supply situation and triggered the most aggressive phase of the rally.

Narrative

The 2021 lentil market was a story of a steady climb that accelerated into a full-blown bull run, fueled by weather and tightening global supplies. The year began quietly but firmly, with red lentils in the mid-20s and large greens in the mid-30s. Early strength was supported by ongoing demand and questions about Indian import policies.

As seeding progressed, a battle for acres emerged, with strong new crop bids across all varieties as buyers sought to secure supply. However, the dominant force became the weather. The severe drought that gripped the Prairies took a heavy toll on lentil production, a fact that became increasingly apparent through the summer. Concerns over a small crop began to drive prices steadily higher.

The market truly ignited post-harvest. When official production numbers confirmed a crop failure, buyers who were short-covered were forced to chase the market aggressively. Prices for all varieties exploded. Red lentils, which had steadily climbed to the 30s, surged past 40 and peaked near 55 cents/lb. Green lentils saw an even more dramatic rise, with large greens jumping from the 40s to over 60 cents, and small greens following suit.

By late in the year, the rally began to face headwinds. Logistical challenges, perceived price resistance from importers, and the looming harvest of a large Australian crop (primarily reds) caused the market to soften from its highs, though prices remained at historically strong levels.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The lentil grower's dilemma was a classic bull market problem: when to sell into a rising tide. The choice was between booking highly profitable sales at 40 cents for greens or 35 cents for reds, or holding out for the possibility of a drought-fueled super-spike. Winners were growers who had deliverable bushels and sold into the post-harvest frenzy, particularly those who captured prices above 60 cents for greens and 50 cents for reds. Losers included buyers who underestimated the drought's impact and were forced to chase prices to multi-year highs, as well as growers whose crops failed completely and could not participate in the rally.

The Lasting Echo

The 2021 lentil market demonstrated that while India's import policy can steer the market, a severe North American crop failure remains the most powerful bullish force, capable of driving prices to levels that test the limits of global demand.

2020

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Reds #2): Rallied from ~$0.22/lb to a peak near $0.30/lb in the spring, before settling into a $0.24-$0.26/lb range post-harvest.
  • Price Range (Large Greens #2): Rallied from ~$0.23/lb to highs of $0.35-$0.38/lb by late fall.
  • Dominant Theme: A market awakened by pandemic-driven demand, leading to a massive spring rally, followed by a divergence where green lentil prices continued to climb while reds faced pressure from the Australian harvest.
  • Pivotal Event: The global pantry-stocking frenzy of March and April 2020, which triggered a sudden and dramatic surge in demand and reset lentil price expectations for the entire year.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish, with greens displaying more sustained strength than reds.

Narrative

The 2020 lentil market was jolted to life by the global pandemic, sparking a wild rally that fundamentally reshaped the year's price landscape. The year began with a promising rally in red lentils based on Turkish and Indian demand, but prices soon softened. The true catalyst arrived in March with COVID-19. As global consumers stocked their pantries, a wave of panic buying slammed into the market, sending prices for all varieties soaring. Red and large green lentils both shot up towards the $0.30/lb mark, creating the most exciting selling opportunity in years.

After the initial surge, the market narrative diverged. Red lentils faced headwinds from a large incoming Australian crop and uncertainty around India's import tariffs, causing prices to retreat to a still-profitable $0.24-$0.26/lb range post-harvest. Green lentils, however, had a different story. With a relatively tighter global supply and strong demand from various destinations, their prices continued to climb throughout the year. Large greens pushed past $0.35/lb and small greens saw bids rise above $0.30/lb, establishing a significant premium over reds and rewarding growers who had maintained green lentil acres. Feed quality lentils also saw a remarkable price surge, trading as high as $0.25/lb.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The year's most critical decision point was for a grower holding both red and green lentils during the fall rally. The dilemma was whether to sell their green lentils at decade-high prices to capitalize on their market leadership, or to sell their red lentils at lower but still-profitable prices, holding the greens in speculation of even greater gains. The winners were those who recognized the diverging fundamentals and sold their red lentils while aggressively marketing their green lentils into the climbing market. The losers were sellers who held onto red lentils too long, only to see their value erode under pressure from the Australian harvest, while potentially missing the peak in the green lentil market.

The Lasting Echo

The 2020 market proved that while a macro event like a pandemic can lift all boats, underlying supply-and-demand fundamentals for each crop variety will ultimately determine who wins the race.

2019

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Reds): \$0.16 - \$0.205/lb FOB farm/delivered, grinding higher late in the year.
  • Price Range (Large Greens): \$0.19 - \$0.27/lb FOB farm/delivered, showing significant strength on quality concerns and tightening supply.
  • Price Range (Small Greens): \$0.16 - \$0.20/lb FOB farm/delivered.
  • Dominant Theme: A slow, grinding recovery from market lows as the trade adapted to the post-tariff reality with India and quality concerns from a difficult harvest began to create differentiation.
  • Pivotal Event: A wet, delayed harvest that created significant quality concerns, particularly for green lentils, sparking a late-year rally for top-grade product.
  • Market Sentiment: Bearish to Cautiously Optimistic. The year started under the shadow of Indian tariffs and large Canadian supplies, but sentiment improved as exports found new homes and the 2019 harvest problems introduced a much-needed supply risk premium.

Narrative

The lentil market in 2019 embarked on a challenging but necessary journey of adaptation. With India, the traditional anchor-tenant of demand, effectively sidelined by tariffs, the year began with prices under pressure. Reds hovered around $0.18-\$0.19/lb, while large greens struggled near $0.22/lb. The Canadian trade was forced to find new homes for its ample supply, and export data showed it was succeeding, with shipments up 26% year-over-year by spring, albeit from a low base.

The market found a new gear in the second half of the year. Rumors of a smaller-than-expected pigeon pea crop in India provided initial support for green lentils. The primary catalyst, however, was Canada's own troubled harvest. Widespread moisture delays led to significant downgrading, creating scarcity for high-quality #1 and #2 green lentils. This sparked a notable rally, with #2 large greens climbing to $0.24/lb and even higher for top grades. Reds also found strength, firming up to $0.20/lb late in the year as buyers sought to cover positions ahead of potential further quality deterioration.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The critical decision point was for the grower with good quality binned lentils heading into fall. They faced the choice to sell at moderately improved pre-harvest prices or to hold, gambling that the wet weather would create a significant quality premium. Those who held their best quality product, particularly large greens, were the clear winners. They were able to sell into a market that was actively chasing grade, capturing a premium of several cents per pound over those who had sold earlier in the summer. The losers were those who sold their #2 large greens at 20 cents, only to watch the market climb to 24 cents and beyond as harvest dragged on.

The Lasting Echo

In a market defined by oversupply and trade barriers, 2019 proved that adverse weather and the resulting chase for quality can become the most powerful bullish catalysts.

2018

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Reds #2): $0.145 - $0.18/lb FOB/delivered
  • Price Range (Large Greens #2): $0.17 - $0.29/lb FOB farm
  • Dominant Theme: The suffocating impact of India's import tariffs and restrictions, which created a massive supply glut, paralyzed trade, and depressed prices across all varieties.
  • Pivotal Event: The initial news in January of India imposing a 30% tariff on lentil imports, a protectionist move that set an overwhelmingly bearish tone for the entire year.
  • Market Sentiment: Deeply bearish; a market grappling with its largest buyer effectively leaving the table, leading to hand-to-mouth purchasing and profound uncertainty.

Narrative

The 2018 lentil story was defined by a single, seismic event: India's imposition of heavy import tariffs. This move sent a shockwave through the market, creating a persistent supply glut and anchoring prices at multi-year lows. Red lentils, heavily dependent on the Indian market, languished in the mid-teens. Large green lentils initially held a significant premium but eventually succumbed to the bearish pressure as the year progressed, with bids falling into the high teens. Buyers operated strictly on a hand-to-mouth basis, unwilling to take on inventory in a market with no clear path to recovery. A brief speculative rally occurred late in the year due to concerns about India's planting season moisture, but it was short-lived, leaving growers with full bins and few profitable options.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The central dilemma was for the grower with unsold 2017 lentils facing the new Indian tariff. The agonizing choice was to sell into a collapsed market at prices like $0.17/lb for reds to generate cash flow and bin space, or to hold on, betting that the tariff was temporary or that another market would emerge. Those who accepted the new reality and sold were able to redeploy their capital. In contrast, those who held inventory saw prices either stagnate or erode further, tying up cash and bin space for another year while hoping for a political solution that never came.

The Lasting Echo

2018 was a brutal lesson in geopolitical risk, demonstrating how a single protectionist trade policy from a key buyer can paralyze the entire North American lentil market for a full year.

2017

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Reds #2): $0.17/lb to $0.21/lb FOB farm
  • Price Range (Large Greens #2): $0.29/lb to $0.39/lb FOB farm
  • Price Range (Small Greens #1): $0.27/lb to $0.32/lb FOB farm
  • Dominant Theme: A market collapse driven by weak demand from India and the looming threat of a significant import tariff.
  • Pivotal Event: India's imposition of a 50% tariff on peas in November, which created intense fear that lentils were next and effectively froze the market.
  • Market Sentiment: Overwhelmingly Bearish. A slow decline in prices accelerated into a crisis of confidence as the threat of Indian trade policy became reality.

Narrative

The lentil market experienced a slow-motion collapse in the second half of 2017. From the outset, the tone was weak, with sluggish purchasing from the key Indian market causing prices for all varieties to sag. Buyers were hesitant, purchasing only hand-to-mouth and creating a market with little underlying support. Red lentils felt the most pressure, with bids sliding from the low 20s down to 17¢/lb, pushing profitability to the breaking point.

The situation turned critical in November when India imposed a massive 50% import tariff on peas. This sent a shockwave through the pulse markets, as traders immediately began pricing in the high probability of a similar tariff on lentils. Rumors of a 25-30% tariff became widespread, killing any remaining buying interest. While large greens maintained a significant premium over reds, their value also eroded steadily, falling from nearly 40¢/lb to below 30¢/lb. The year ended with a market paralyzed by political uncertainty, with massive carryout stocks looming and no price recovery in sight.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The lentil grower faced the year's most harrowing dilemma: when to abandon hope. The choice was to sell at steadily eroding prices throughout the fall or to hold inventory, betting that the Indian trade situation would somehow resolve favorably. The winners, in a relative sense, were the growers who sold early, especially large greens, locking in profits before the market sentiment completely collapsed. The definitive losers were those who held their entire production, particularly red lentils, into the winter, facing both the lowest prices of the year and the prospect of carrying inventory into an even more oversupplied new year.

The Lasting Echo

The mere threat of a protectionist trade policy from a dominant customer can be as destructive to a market as the policy itself, forcing an entire supply chain to price in the worst-case scenario.

Disclaimer: My analytical process is a hybrid model, combining customized AI tools with manual expertise. The AI is trained for initial data synthesis and signal detection, leaving the crucial work of strategic interpretation and final analysis to me.