2025

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: $9.73/bu to $12.00/bu FOB farm.
  • Dominant Theme: A market caught between the bearish pressure of a record South American crop and the bullish potential of U.S. biofuel policy and trade developments.
  • Pivotal Event: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's proposed biofuel mandates and an extension of the Clean Fuel Production Credit, which provided significant support to the soy complex.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral, balanced between competing bearish and bullish factors.

Narrative

The soybean market in 2025 navigated a landscape of conflicting international signals. The dominant bearish factor for much of the year was the massive South American harvest, with Brazil projected to produce a record crop of up to 174 million metric tons. This weighed on futures, with prices trending downward from early February through the spring.

However, this pressure was counterbalanced by several bullish developments in the United States. The USDA's surprisingly low stock estimates and projections for a significant decrease in U.S. plantings provided underlying support. More importantly, the market was buoyed by policy news, including an extension of biofuel tax credits and stronger-than-expected proposed biofuel blending mandates. These policies signaled robust future domestic demand for soyoil, lifting the entire complex.

Trade news added another layer of volatility. Threats of U.S. tariffs on Chinese and EU goods created uncertainty, while China's suspension of some Brazilian soy shipments due to phytosanitary concerns offered a potential opening for U.S. exports. Throughout this push-and-pull, local farm gate prices remained relatively stable, hovering in a range between $10.00 and $11.50/bu for most of the year.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key dilemma was for the North American soybean trader. They had to decide whether to structure their position based on the bearish reality of the massive, physically available South American crop or the more speculative, bullish potential of future U.S. biofuel demand and policy changes. Traders who focused solely on the global supply glut and took a strong bearish stance were likely caught off guard by the strength of the policy-driven rallies. The winners were the traders who recognized the balanced nature of the market, likely trading the range and staying nimble enough to react to both the South American supply news and the U.S. policy announcements, profiting from the volatility without taking on excessive directional risk.

The Lasting Echo

In modern agricultural markets, government policy can be just as powerful as weather in determining price, capable of single-handedly counter-balancing a record global supply.

2024

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: Bids ranged from a low near $10.00/bu FOB farm late in the year to highs around $15.50/bu in January and February.
  • Dominant Theme: A market under persistent pressure from a massive South American crop, particularly from Brazil, which weighed on futures and offset strong domestic crush numbers.
  • Pivotal Event: The confirmation of a record, or near-record, Brazilian soybean harvest, which solidified the bearish global supply narrative and kept a firm ceiling on prices.
  • Market Sentiment: Bearish. Despite some short-covering rallies and strong domestic crush, the macro story was one of overwhelming global supply.

Narrative

The 2024 soybean market was dominated by the shadow of a colossal South American crop. While domestic fundamentals like record U.S. crush rates offered some support, they were consistently overpowered by the reality of Brazil’s massive harvest coming to market. Prices started the year strong, in the $15.00/bu range, but began a steady erosion as the scale of the South American supply became clear. Forecasts of beneficial rains in Brazil and Argentina repeatedly dampened market sentiment, creating headwinds that even robust demand from China couldn't fully overcome. By the end of the year, with a near-record U.S. harvest also underway, prices had fallen to the $10.00-$11.00/bu range, completing the transition from a weather-supported market to one defined by burdensome global stocks.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key stakeholder was the North American soybean grower with unpriced old crop. Early in the year, they had to decide whether to sell into the still-strong local market or hold, hoping that Chinese demand or a weather issue could spark a rally. However, every market signal pointed to a massive South American crop that would inevitably pressure prices. The winners were producers who recognized the bearish global supply picture early and sold their remaining inventory before the full weight of the Brazilian harvest hit the market. The losers were those who held on, watching the value of their crop decline steadily as the southern hemisphere's production reality took hold.

The Lasting Echo

The year 2024 proved that in the soybean market, the sheer scale of the South American crop has become the single most powerful price driver, capable of overriding even strong domestic demand signals.

2023

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: $14.75 - $19.00/bu FOB farm
  • Dominant Theme: A market caught in a tug-of-war between a record-breaking Brazilian harvest and a drought-stricken Argentinian crop.
  • Pivotal Event: The consistent downward revisions of Argentina's production estimates throughout the first quarter, which provided a bullish counter-narrative to Brazil's massive crop and supported North American prices.
  • Market Sentiment: Volatile Neutral

Narrative

The North American soybean market in 2023 was dominated by the unfolding weather story in South America. The year began with prices firm, holding in the $17.00-$17.50/bu range, as the market attempted to balance two competing narratives. On the bearish side was Brazil, which was on pace for a "bin-buster" record harvest of over 153 MMT. This massive influx of supply consistently acted as a headwind, capping any significant rallies.

On the bullish side was Argentina, which was suffering through a catastrophic drought. Throughout the first half of the year, production estimates for the Argentinian crop were relentlessly revised downward, with forecasted losses eventually reaching over 10 MMT. This created a fundamental supply risk that provided strong support for the market, preventing the weight of the Brazilian crop from causing a total price collapse.

This dynamic tension kept local bids in a wide but relatively stable range for much of the year, generally between $17.00/bu and $19.00/bu FOB farm. Market movements were largely dictated by short-term weather forecasts for the US Midwest during its growing season and later, for Brazil's planting season in the fall. Sluggish US export demand and uncertainty around Chinese purchasing volumes were secondary factors that contributed to the choppy, sideways price action. By year-end, with the US harvest progressing and attention turning back to South American weather, bids had softened into the $15-$16/bu range.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The primary dilemma was for the North American soybean marketer (grower or trader) throughout the year. Faced with conflicting bullish (Argentina drought) and bearish (Brazil record crop) signals, they had to decide whether to sell into periods of strength, assuming the Brazilian supply would ultimately dominate, or hold, assuming the Argentinian losses were more significant.

  • Winners: Disciplined marketers who sold in increments into the price strength seen in the first three quarters of the year. They capitalized on the volatility created by the Argentinian drought story without being exposed to the eventual price erosion caused by the sheer volume of Brazilian and US supply.
  • Losers: Marketers who held onto their entire crop, betting solely on the Argentinian drought to propel prices to new highs. They failed to appreciate the overwhelming impact of the record Brazilian harvest and were left selling into a weaker market at year-end.

The Lasting Echo

The 2023 soybean market was a powerful example of how crop failures in one major exporting nation can be almost entirely offset by a bumper crop in another, leading to a volatile but ultimately range-bound market instead of a clear bull or bear trend.

2022

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: Maintained a consistently strong and elevated range throughout the year, starting near $14.50/bu and rallying to trade between $17.00/bu and $18.50/bu for a significant portion of the year.
  • Dominant Theme: A market driven by powerful global fundamentals, primarily weather concerns in South America and strong demand for vegetable oils, which provided a high and stable price floor for Prairie growers.
  • Pivotal Event: The persistent drought in key growing regions of Brazil and Argentina, which repeatedly trimmed production forecasts and provided sustained support to Chicago futures.
  • Market Sentiment: Consistently bullish, with price dips being viewed as buying opportunities due to the strong underlying global supply and demand story.

Narrative

While many specialty crops experienced wild price swings, the 2022 soybean market was a model of sustained strength. From the start of the year, prices were underpinned by a powerful bullish narrative centered on adverse weather in South America. Persistent heat and dryness, particularly in southern Brazil and Argentina, led to continuous downward revisions of production estimates, keeping Chicago futures on a firm upward trend.

This global strength translated directly into robust local cash bids across the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. Prices climbed steadily from the $15.00/bu level to well over $17.00/bu, and frequently surpassed $18.00/bu. The market was further supported by a rally in the entire edible oils complex, driven by tight canola supplies and disruptions to sunflower oil from the war in Ukraine. For regional growers, soybeans provided a consistently profitable and less volatile alternative to many of the specialty crops that were experiencing more dramatic price corrections.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The primary dilemma was for the flexible Prairie grower deciding on spring planting intentions. The choice was between planting canola at unprecedented new crop prices that carried significant production risk and no Act of God, or planting soybeans, which offered slightly lower but still excellent returns with more stable pricing and less downside volatility. Growers who opted for soybeans sacrificed the absolute peak price potential of canola for a more predictable and still highly profitable outcome. There were no real losers in this scenario, but it highlighted the strategic choice between maximizing potential reward versus managing risk.

The Lasting Echo

2022 demonstrated that even when local specialty crop markets are experiencing once-in-a-generation volatility, strong global soybean fundamentals can provide Prairie growers with a stable, reliable, and highly profitable cropping alternative.

2021

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Local Bids): Hovered in a strong range of $14.50-$16.00/bu for most of the year, with a peak near $17.50/bu in the fall.
  • Dominant Theme: A market dictated by massive external forces, including South American weather, relentless Chinese buying of US supplies, and volatile vegetable oil prices, all of which kept local Prairie bids at historically elevated levels.
  • Pivotal Event: The USDA's Prospective Planting Report on March 31, which showed fewer soybean acres than the trade expected, sending futures limit-up and reinforcing the tight global supply narrative that supported prices all year.
  • Market Sentiment: Consistently bullish, with any price dips caused by profit-taking or temporary weather relief in South America being short-lived.

Narrative

The Prairie soybean market in 2021 was entirely a passenger on a bullish global train driven by external factors. The year began with soaring futures prices, fueled by dry weather in South America and massive Chinese purchases draining US inventories. This immediately translated into strong local bids around $14.50/bu.

This dynamic of global tightness defined the entire year. The market narrative was a constant interplay between Brazilian harvest progress, US planting intentions, and the pace of Chinese demand. A key moment came in late March when a bullish USDA report sent futures soaring, confirming that the global balance sheet would remain tight and solidifying the high-price environment.

For Prairie growers, this meant that local cash bids remained strong and well-supported throughout the season, mostly trading in a $14.50 to $16.00/bu range. While the Prairie crop itself was impacted by the drought, local production volumes were too small to influence the continental price structure. Instead, growers benefited from a market where global supply concerns kept a firm floor under their prices, culminating in bids that touched as high as $17.50/bu later in the year.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The primary dilemma for a Prairie soybean grower was when to price their crop in a market driven by complex international news. The choice was whether to lock in excellent profits early in the year based on the South American weather story or to hold on, speculating on US weather issues or further tightening of global stocks. Given the market's sustained strength, growers who sold at almost any point during the year realized very strong returns. The biggest winners were those who capitalized on the fall peaks, while the few who might have lost were those who held out for even higher prices only to see bids soften slightly late in the year due to harvest pressure in the US Midwest.

The Lasting Echo

2021 underscored that for Prairie soybeans, local weather and production are secondary; profitability is almost entirely dictated by the larger supply and demand narratives playing out in the United States, South America, and China.

2020

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: Began the year trading near $9.75/bu, rallied through the second half to finish the year at a high of $12.75/bu.
  • Dominant Theme: A market driven by global macro factors, including persistent Chinese demand, a weaker US dollar, and weather concerns in South America.
  • Pivotal Event: The sustained return of Chinese buyers to the US market to rebuild their national hog herd, which underpinned the rally for the entire soy complex.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral early in the year, turning decidedly Bullish from summer onward.

Narrative

Soybeans in 2020 served as a key barometer for the entire North American oilseed complex, with their bull run providing a powerful tailwind for canola. The market spent the first half of the year in a relatively tight range near $10.00/bu, weighed down by uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal and the economic impact of COVID-19.

The narrative changed in the second half. A potent combination of factors ignited a major rally that added nearly $3.00/bu to local cash bids by year-end. Chinese demand proved to be real and sustained as they worked to rebuild a hog herd decimated by African Swine Fever. This was coupled with dry weather conditions that delayed planting and raised yield concerns in Brazil and Argentina. As US soybean stocks were revised lower by the USDA, the market tightened significantly, pulling prices to multi-year highs and providing critical support for the entire oilseed sector across the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key decision for a Northern Plains soybean grower was identical to that of their Canadian canola-growing counterparts: sell early to manage risk or store the crop in anticipation of a major rally. The dilemma was whether to trust the early signs of a market turnaround or to sell at profitable but unspectacular prices. The winners were those who held their crop, benefiting from a global bull market that delivered the best selling opportunities in several years. Those who sold early for cash flow missed a significant portion of the upside.

The Lasting Echo

The 2020 soybean rally affirmed the old market adage that "nothing cures low prices like low prices," as a period of suppressed values ultimately stimulated enough demand to create a powerful and sustained price recovery.

2019

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: Approx. $9.00 - $10.85/bu FOB farm.
  • Dominant Theme: A market tethered to the whims of the US-China trade dispute, with Canadian prices buffered from bearish US fundamentals by a weak loonie.
  • Pivotal Event: The "Phase 1" trade deal announcement in December, which provided a late-year shot in the arm to a market that had been weighed down by trade uncertainty all year.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish. Sentiment was largely dictated by the daily headlines from the US-China trade war and the reality of burdensome US inventories, though local prices in Canada found consistent support from the exchange rate.

Narrative

The Canadian soybean market spent 2019 in a holding pattern, with local prices caught between powerful opposing forces. On one hand, the market was weighed down by overwhelmingly bearish US fundamentals: the ongoing trade war with China crippled US export demand, leading to a massive inventory carryout. This pressure repeatedly pushed US futures to multi-year lows.

On the other hand, Canadian prices were consistently supported by a weak Canadian dollar, which helped keep local bids north of $10.00/bu FOB for much of the year, even when US prices were collapsing. The market narrative was a perpetual re-run of trade talk rumors, with small rallies fueled by hopes of a deal and subsequent sell-offs when those hopes were dashed. The year ended on a more positive note, as the announcement of a "Phase 1" trade agreement provided some much-needed strength, but the overarching story was one of a market waiting for a political resolution.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The core dilemma was for the Canadian soybean grower watching US futures plummet. Their choice was whether to trust the buffer provided by the weak Canadian dollar and sell at local prices near $10.00/bu, or to hold their grain, betting on a resolution to the US-China trade war that could spark a much larger rally in the underlying futures market. The winners were those who recognized the value of the currency advantage and made sales at profitable Canadian dollar levels, rather than waiting for a US-led recovery that was slow to materialize. They effectively sold the strong basis created by the low loonie, a strategically sound move in a fundamentally bearish environment.

The Lasting Echo

In 2019, the soybean market was a masterclass in how a favorable basis and currency exchange rate can insulate a local market from global bearish fundamentals.

2018

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: Local bids ranged from approx. $9.50 - $11.20/bu FOB farm.
  • Dominant Theme: A market held hostage by the escalating US-China trade war and volatile Chicago futures, with local prices partially shielded by a weakening Canadian dollar.
  • Pivotal Event: The implementation of retaliatory Chinese tariffs on US soybeans, which shattered the market structure and created deep uncertainty for North American producers.
  • Market Sentiment: Bearish and volatile; completely driven by geopolitical headlines rather than traditional supply and demand fundamentals.

Narrative

The soybean market in 2018 was less about farming and more about geopolitics. The narrative was completely dominated by the escalating trade war between the United States and China. Early-year price strength, driven by weather concerns in Argentina, quickly evaporated as the threat of Chinese tariffs on US soybeans became a reality. Chicago futures plunged, and the market became a volatile, headline-driven affair. While a weakening Canadian dollar provided a partial buffer for local prairie bids, the overarching bearish sentiment was inescapable. The year ended with a temporary truce between the US and China, but the market remained on edge, a clear demonstration of how political disputes can overshadow agricultural fundamentals.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key dilemma was for the unhedged soybean producer. They had to decide whether to sell into a falling market to mitigate further losses from the trade war or hold on in the high-stakes gamble that a political resolution would spark a sharp recovery. Those who sold before the worst of the tariff-related collapse managed to preserve capital. The losers were those who held on, hoping for a quick political fix, only to watch their inventory value erode with each new tariff announcement.

The Lasting Echo

2018 was a sobering lesson in how quickly agricultural markets can become pawns in international trade disputes, making political risk as critical to manage as weather or yield.

2017

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Local Bids): $10.00/bu to $11.50/bu FOB farm/delivered
  • Dominant Theme: A market driven by the interplay of global weather forecasts, USDA reports, and the significant influence of the Canadian dollar on local prices.
  • Pivotal Event: The weakening of the Canadian dollar in the fall, which provided a significant boost to local prairie bids, insulating Canadian growers from some of the weakness seen in Chicago futures.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral. The market was caught in a tug-of-war between large global supplies and persistent weather concerns in key growing regions, leading to choppy, sideways price action.

Narrative

The North American soybean market in 2017 was a globally-focused affair, with prices constantly reacting to a shifting series of macro inputs. The year was marked by a steady rhythm of market-moving events: early-season weather concerns in the US Midwest, followed by position-squaring ahead of monthly USDA reports, which often surprised the trade. As the North American harvest wrapped up, focus shifted to South America, where dry planting conditions in Brazil and Argentina provided a bullish undertone against the reality of a record-large US crop.

For Canadian prairie growers, the most critical factor was not in Chicago or Brazil, but in Ottawa. A weakening Canadian dollar through the fall provided a crucial lift to local basis levels. This "currency cushion" propped up local bids, often translating into prices north of $11.00/bu even when Chicago futures were under pressure. This dynamic underscored that for Canadian producers, the final price received was a two-part equation: the global futures price and the domestic currency exchange rate.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The Canadian soybean grower's dilemma was deciding which signal to trade: the volatile Chicago futures market or the more impactful fluctuations in the CAD/USD exchange rate. A grower who sold based on a futures rally might miss out on a larger gain from a subsequent drop in the loonie. The winners were producers who understood this interplay and made sales when the combination of futures and a weak Canadian dollar was most favorable, rather than focusing on just one factor. The losers were those who ignored the currency's impact and sold into what seemed like a strong futures market, only to see local bids rise further as the dollar fell.

The Lasting Echo

For a Canadian producer of a globally-priced commodity, the domestic currency's exchange rate is not a secondary factor; it is a co-equal driver of profitability alongside the underlying futures market.

Disclaimer: My analytical process is a hybrid model, combining customized AI tools with manual expertise. The AI is trained for initial data synthesis and signal detection, leaving the crucial work of strategic interpretation and final analysis to me.