2025

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: $8.00/bu to $9.50/bu, with the strongest bids concentrated in eastern Saskatchewan.
  • Dominant Theme: A strong export-led market in the first half of the year, which later stabilized as global supply dynamics shifted.
  • Pivotal Event: Turkey's extension of its durum export ban until May 31, 2025, which removed a major competitor and created a significant demand window for Canadian durum.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish early in the year, stabilizing to neutral by mid-year.

Narrative

The durum market began 2025 with exceptional strength, driven by a surge in export demand. By early January, Canadian durum exports were running a remarkable 79% ahead of the previous year's pace. A primary catalyst for this demand was Turkey's decision to extend its export ban, effectively taking a key global supplier offline and redirecting buyers to Canada. This created strong pricing opportunities, with values holding steady around $8.50/bu delivered to Saskatchewan plants and bids in the tighter-supplied eastern parts of the province reaching as high as $9.00-$9.50/bu FOB.

This bullish momentum carried through the first half of the year. In March, Algeria issued a significant tender, purchasing up to 400,000 metric tonnes, further supporting the market. However, as the year progressed and Turkey’s potential re-entry into the export market loomed, the upward price pressure began to ease. By mid-summer, bids had stabilized in the $8.75-$9.00/bu range. As the new Canadian crop approached, concerns about potential quality issues from late-season rains began to surface, but the market remained in a holding pattern, having transitioned from an export-driven rally to a more balanced state.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key stakeholder was the durum grower, who faced a classic marketing dilemma: whether to sell into the strong and certain export-driven rally early in the year or hold their grain in hopes of even higher prices. The winners were the producers who aggressively marketed their old crop durum between January and April, capitalizing on the peak demand created by Turkey's absence from the market. Those who held on past this window found that while prices remained respectable, the upward momentum had stalled. They missed the top of the market and faced increasing uncertainty about new crop quality as harvest approached.

The Lasting Echo

The 2025 durum market was a powerful reminder that geopolitical events create finite windows of opportunity, and the greatest profits belong to those who act decisively within them.

2024

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: Bids saw a significant decline throughout the year, starting around $12.50/bu and falling to the $8.50/bu range by late summer and fall.
  • Dominant Theme: Overwhelming competitive pressure from massive, cheap exports from Black Sea nations, particularly Turkey, which systematically eroded Canada's market share in key destinations.
  • Pivotal Event: Turkey’s tender in late January to sell 150,000 MT of its own durum stocks, a highly unusual move that signaled its aggressive entry as a seller and directly undercut Canadian export potential.
  • Market Sentiment: Decidedly Bearish. The market faced a continuous slide as new, cheaper global competitors emerged.

Narrative

The 2024 durum market was a story of displacement. Canada began the year in its familiar position as a key global supplier, with prices at a respectable $12.50/bu. However, this position was rapidly undermined by an unexpected flood of cheap exports from Turkey. The turning point came in late January when Turkey, traditionally an importer, began aggressively selling its own stocks into the global market. This fundamentally altered trade flows, with EU buyers like Italy and Tunisia shifting their business away from Canada towards cheaper Turkish and Russian origins. Canadian export share to the EU plummeted from over 70% in the previous year to under 20%. This relentless competitive pressure sent local bids into a steady decline, falling below $11.00/bu and eventually settling in the mid-$8.00 range by harvest, leaving Canadian growers facing a market reality they had not seen in years.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The stakeholder facing the toughest choice was the Canadian durum exporter. As they watched their traditional customers in the EU pivot to cheaper Black Sea suppliers, they had to decide whether to compete aggressively on price—destroying their margins in the process—or to step back and concede market share, hoping for a price recovery. Competing meant accepting near-zero profitability to keep vessels moving. Stepping back meant potentially losing long-term customer relationships. The winners were international importers, particularly in the EU, who benefited from a price war between suppliers. The losers were Canadian growers and exporters, who saw both prices and market share collapse under the weight of the new competition.

The Lasting Echo

The year served as a jarring wake-up call that Canada’s long-held dominance in the global durum market was no longer guaranteed and was now vulnerable to aggressive, low-cost Black Sea competition.

2022

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Old Crop #1): A story of steady decline, opening the year above $20.00/bu and systematically eroding to the $16.00/bu range by spring, eventually falling to near $13.00/bu by year-end.
  • Price Range (New Crop): Contracts were available early in a strong $13.00 - $14.50/bu range, offering a significant premium over historical averages.
  • Dominant Theme: The gradual but relentless erosion of historic, drought-induced prices as buyer demand was rationed and the prospect of a much better 2022 crop became a reality.
  • Pivotal Event: The market's inability to find sustained buying interest above $20.00/bu early in the year, signaling that peak prices were in the past and a correction was underway.
  • Market Sentiment: Overwhelmingly bearish, characterized by a slow and steady price decline from unprecedented highs.

Narrative

In stark contrast to the explosive spring wheat market, 2022 was a year of managed decline for durum. The market entered the year at the tail end of a historic rally, with bids still lingering above an incredible $20.00/bu. However, it quickly became apparent that these prices had effectively rationed global demand. Buyers were scarce, and the market began a slow, grinding descent. Throughout the winter and spring, prices systematically stepped down, first to the high teens, then to the mid-teens, with each small rally attempt failing to hold.

New crop bids offered an opportunity for growers to lock in excellent profitability, with contracts appearing in the $13.00-$14.50/bu range. As the 2022 crop developed under much-improved moisture conditions across the Prairies and US Plains, the bearish sentiment solidified. By the time harvest began, old and new crop values had converged, with the market settling into a new trading range that, while still strong by historical standards, was a shadow of the peaks seen just months earlier.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The year's defining choice was for the durum grower holding their 2021 "drought gold." Their dilemma was whether to sell into the softening but still magnificent $20.00/bu market at the start of the year or to hold on, believing the once-in-a-lifetime prices were sustainable. The winners were those who recognized the signs of demand rationing and sold aggressively in the first quarter. The losers were those who held on, chasing the market all the way down and losing several dollars per bushel in potential revenue as the price eroded week after week.

The Lasting Echo

The 2022 durum market was a classic case study in how even the most extreme supply shocks are eventually corrected, proving that no price is high enough to be sustained if it destroys its own demand.

2021

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: Began the year with spot bids around $8.00-$8.50/bu, embarking on a relentless climb to astonishing highs of $20.00-$22.00/bu by Q4.
  • Dominant Theme: A catastrophic, world-leading production failure in its core North American growing region, triggering a global supply panic and sending prices into historically unprecedented territory.
  • Pivotal Event: The summer heat dome, which scorched the durum crop during its most vulnerable stage across Saskatchewan, Alberta, and the US Northern Plains, guaranteeing a massive global production deficit.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish from the start, accelerating into a full-blown supply panic from July onward.

Narrative

The 2021 durum market was the epicentre of the Prairie drought disaster. The year started on a strong footing, with old crop values already firm in the $8.00-$8.50/bu range and new crop bids appearing at similar, highly profitable levels. This strength was rooted in solid global demand and tightening old crop stocks.

However, the summer's extreme heat and lack of rainfall transformed a strong market into a historic crisis. The durum crop, concentrated in the hardest-hit drought zones of North America, was decimated. As the catastrophic scale of the crop failure became apparent in July and August, the market exploded. Bids blew past the symbolic $10.00/bu mark and began a relentless climb that seemed to have no ceiling.

By the fourth quarter, the market was in a state of supply panic. With global importers facing a massive production hole that no other region could fill, prices soared to levels once considered impossible. Bids of $15.00/bu gave way to $18.00/bu, and eventually to staggering trades between $20.00 and $22.00/bu. The market was no longer about finding a price to clear supply, but about allocating a severely shrunken crop to buyers for whom price was almost no object. The year concluded with durum as the undisputed, if tragic, king of the grain markets.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

For the durum grower, the dilemma was agonizing: how to market a crop in a once-in-a-lifetime price rally while simultaneously watching that very crop burn up in the field. The choice was whether to lock in new crop sales at exceptional early prices (e.g., $9.00-$10.00/bu) or hold off, betting on higher prices but risking having zero bushels to sell. The winners were the very few growers who managed to produce even a fraction of an average crop and could sell it into the $20.00+/bu market post-harvest. The overwhelming majority, however, were losers—producers who had no crop to sell and could only watch the historic rally from the sidelines, facing a massive financial blow despite record-high prices.

The Lasting Echo

The 2021 drought etched a permanent lesson into the global grain trade: the world's supply of high-quality durum wheat is dangerously concentrated in a single, climate-vulnerable North American region.

2020

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: A consistent $7.75-$8.25/bu delivered for #1 quality, with new crop contracts also appearing in this strong range.
  • Dominant Theme: Quiet strength and stability, providing a profitable and low-drama marketing alternative to the volatility seen in other cereal markets.
  • Pivotal Event: Turkey's reduction of tariffs on durum imports, signaling solid international demand and helping to support firm pricing throughout the year.
  • Market Sentiment: Consistently Bullish and stable.

Narrative

In a year of wild market swings, durum offered a port in the storm, defined by quiet stability and consistently strong pricing. The market for #1 quality durum held firm in a range around $8.00/bu, particularly in its traditional stronghold of southeast Saskatchewan. Unlike milling wheat, which saw its premium over feed evaporate, durum maintained its value throughout the year, supported by solid international demand.

The market's underlying strength was reflected in attractive new crop pricing, with bids for 2021 movement appearing as high as $8.25/bu FOB farm. This provided growers with an excellent opportunity to lock in strong margins well ahead of harvest. While the broader wheat complex was often driven by weather scares in Russia or gyrations in the futures market, the durum trade remained a steady, profitable performer, rewarding growers who dedicated acres to it.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The primary decision point was for a grower in a suitable region ahead of seeding. The choice was whether to lock in a new crop durum contract at a historically strong price of over $8.00/bu, guaranteeing a solid profit, or to plant unpriced, speculating that weather or political events could drive spot prices even higher by harvest. Those who took the contracts were the winners, de-risking their production year and securing excellent returns with minimal marketing stress. Given the market's stability, those who grew it unpriced also fared well, but they carried unnecessary price risk throughout the growing season.

The Lasting Echo

The 2020 durum market proved that a specialized commodity with a dedicated demand base can maintain price integrity and offer profitable stability, even when the broader commodity complex is in turmoil.

2017

At-a-Glance

  • Market Position: A quality- and location-driven market with significant premiums available for specific grades in export-focused regions.
  • Price Range (#1 US Grade): $7.50/bu to $8.25/bu FOB farm
  • Dominant Theme: The bifurcation of the market between standard milling grades and a high-premium export program.
  • Pivotal Event: A dry growing season in key areas during July, which sparked concern about production and quality, helping to firm up prices for high-spec grain.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral to Firm. General market values were stable, but sentiment for top-quality grain in key locations was strong.

Narrative

The durum market in 2017 was not a monolith; it was sharply divided by geography and quality. While the broader market saw stable values, a distinct and lucrative opportunity emerged for producers in southeast Saskatchewan. A specific export program for #1 US Grade durum offered bids as high as $7.75-$8.25/bu FOB farm, a significant premium over other bids. This program came with stringent quality requirements, including a minimum falling number, low vomitoxin, and high hard vitreous kernel (HVK) counts.

Market prices reacted positively in mid-summer to drought concerns across key growing regions, which supported values for the high-quality crop that was eventually harvested. Unlike the previous year, disease pressure was low, leading to better overall quality. As the year progressed, movement on top-grade contracts began to push into the new year, indicating that buyers were steadily covering their needs for this premium segment of the market.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The dilemma belonged to the grower in southeast Saskatchewan with #1 quality durum. They had to choose between selling into the high-paying but strict US-grade program, risking discounts if any spec was missed, or selling into more conventional domestic milling channels for a lower but potentially more secure price. The winners were the growers who could consistently meet the high-spec demands, as they captured a significant premium unavailable to the rest of the market. The losers were those who targeted the program but failed to meet quality, facing discounts that may have eroded their net return below what other marketing options offered.

The Lasting Echo

Proximity to a key export market and the ability to meet its specific, high-quality demands can create a profitable sub-market insulated from broader domestic price trends.

Disclaimer: My analytical process is a hybrid model, combining customized AI tools with manual expertise. The AI is trained for initial data synthesis and signal detection, leaving the crucial work of strategic interpretation and final analysis to me.