2025

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Old Crop #2 Kabuli): $0.30/lb to $0.41/lb FOB farm, with significant premiums for lots with high percentages of 9mm sizing.
  • Dominant Theme: A sluggish, buyer-driven market where purchasing was highly selective, focusing almost exclusively on specific size profiles.
  • Pivotal Event: A record pace of Canadian chickpea exports, particularly to Pakistan, which helped move volume but failed to translate into stronger domestic prices due to ample global supplies.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish, marked by buyer caution.

Narrative

The chickpea market in 2025 was characterized by quiet, selective trading against a backdrop of comfortable global supply and looming trade uncertainty. Values for large-caliber Kabuli chickpeas began the year around $0.40-$0.41/lb FOB, but these bids were strictly for lots with a minimum of 20-25% 9mm sizing. Throughout the year, buyers remained hesitant, rarely pursuing product aggressively and making it clear that sizing was the key purchasing factor. Bids for smaller-sized chickpeas languished at a discount, trading in the low-to-mid $0.30s/lb.

Several external factors contributed to the cautious tone. The looming possibility of U.S. tariffs made buyers wary, given the U.S. is a leading importer of Canadian chickpeas. Furthermore, expectations of increased acreage in both Canada and the U.S., coupled with ample supply in Turkey, suppressed any potential for a price rally. While Canada set a record pace for exports, this demand was not enough to spark the domestic market, as it was viewed as value-driven buying in a well-supplied global environment. As harvest approached, old and new crop prices converged in the low $0.30s/lb, with the market showing no signs of breaking out of its long-standing slump.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The critical dilemma fell to the grower with a bin of mixed-size chickpeas. They faced the strategic choice of selling the entire lot "as is" for a blended price in the mid-$0.30/lb or investing the time and money to clean and size the product. The goal of cleaning was to isolate the high-value 9mm portion to capture the premium bids near $0.40/lb, while finding a secondary market for the smaller 7mm and 8mm calibers. Growers who had the scale and logistics to size their product effectively were the winners, maximizing the total value of their production. Those who sold mixed lots left money on the table, as buyers priced the entire bin based on the lowest-value portion.

The Lasting Echo

In an oversupplied and discerning market, raw volume becomes irrelevant; value is dictated entirely by the ability to deliver the precise quality and specifications the buyer demands.

2024

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: Old crop #2 Kabuli bids ranged from a high of $0.57/lb early in the year to lows near $0.38/lb by late summer, with new crop contracts falling from $0.45/lb to the high $0.30s.
  • Dominant Theme: The critical importance of seed size. A market flush with smaller-caliber product consistently paid a premium for lots with a high percentage of 9mm and larger chickpeas.
  • Pivotal Event: The realization late in the growing season that the hot, dry finish would once again result in a crop dominated by smaller sizing, cementing buyer leverage and keeping prices subdued.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish. Ample North American supply and a focus on sizing kept buyers selective and unwilling to chase the market.

Narrative

The 2024 chickpea market was a lesson in specifications. From the outset, the story was not about a shortage of supply, but a shortage of size. While old crop prices started the year respectably in the low-to-mid 50-cent range, it quickly became apparent that buyers were only interested in large-caliber product, often specifying a minimum percentage of 9mm chickpeas and a maximum on 7mm. This bifurcation defined the market all year. New crop contracts held firm at a profitable 45 cents for months, but buying was never aggressive. As the growing season progressed under hot and dry conditions, it became clear that the 2024 crop would again struggle with sizing, giving buyers little reason to bid up. Prices for both old and new crop eroded into the fall, settling in the high 30s to low 40s, with any premium entirely dependent on a sample passing the sizing test.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The year’s most crucial decision fell to the grower with a bin of harvested, ungraded chickpeas. They faced the choice of selling the lot as-is at a blended, discounted price, or investing the time and money to have it professionally cleaned and sized. Sizing the product was a gamble; it could unlock significant premiums if the 9mm percentage was high, but it could also reveal a bin full of unmarketable small-caliber chickpeas, with the grower now out the cost of grading. The winners were producers whose agronomic practices yielded larger seeds and who paid for sizing to prove it, allowing them to capture the market’s top bids. The losers were those with smaller-sized product who were forced to sell at a steep discount or, in some cases, struggled to find a bid at all.

The Lasting Echo

In a market with sufficient volume, 2024 proved that quality specifications like seed caliber are no longer just a grading factor but the primary determinant of whether a grower has a marketable commodity or a liability.

2023

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Kabuli, #2): $0.44 - $0.60/lb FOB farm
  • Price Range (Desi, #2): ~$0.35/lb FOB farm
  • Dominant Theme: A tale of two halves—an early-year price surge driven by tight supply, followed by a prolonged standoff between cautious buyers and expectant growers.
  • Pivotal Event: The introduction of new crop contracts at a historically high $0.475/lb with an Act of God clause in early January, which signaled strong forward demand and encouraged a significant acreage increase.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish turning to Cautious Standoff

Narrative

The chickpea market entered 2023 with a bullish surge. After a quiet holiday period, values for #2 Kabuli chickpeas climbed aggressively in January, rising from the mid-$0.50s/lb to trade as high as $0.60/lb FOB farm. This rally was fueled by slowing Indian exports chewing through domestic supplies, creating a window of opportunity for North American product. The strength was further confirmed when buyers came to the table with new crop contracts starting at an exceptional $0.475/lb FOB with an Act of God clause, signaling a clear intent to secure a significant acreage increase.

However, after this initial flurry, the market dynamic shifted to what was repeatedly described as a shallow, "fill and kill" environment. Buyers would step in to cover immediate needs, but their interest was not deep, and bids would retreat quickly after a few loads were purchased. This pattern persisted for much of the year. While the expectation of a large North American acreage increase was a constant bearish theme, it was counterbalanced by reports of poor growing conditions in Mexico and strong export demand from Turkey and the US.

This tension created a prolonged standoff. Prices for old crop #2 Kabulis settled into a wide range, generally between $0.50/lb and $0.55/lb, while new crop bids held firm in the $0.45-$0.48/lb range. A key factor that emerged during harvest was sizing; a high percentage of 7mm product was reported due to heat, creating a premium for larger 9mm chickpeas. Desi chickpeas made a brief appearance on the bid sheet late in the year, trading around $0.35/lb.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The stakeholder facing the most critical choice was the chickpea grower in the fall, post-harvest. With a crop in the bin and prices holding firm around $0.54-$0.55/lb, the dilemma was whether to sell into this stable but unexciting market for guaranteed cash flow or hold out for another speculative rally, betting that tightening global supplies would eventually force buyers to bid more aggressively.

  • Winners: Growers who took advantage of the strong and stable prices available from September to December. They capitalized on the market's high plateau, locking in excellent profits without taking on additional storage and interest costs.
  • Losers: It's too early to definitively name losers, but growers holding out for a significant price surge past $0.60/lb took on considerable risk. They faced the possibility that a good Indian or Mexican crop could satisfy near-term demand, leaving Canadian product to stagnate in the bin.

The Lasting Echo

The year demonstrated that even in a fundamentally strong market, a significant increase in planned acreage can create enough forward-looking caution among buyers to temper rallies and enforce price plateaus.

2022

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Old Crop #2 Kabuli): Opened near $0.51/lb, experienced a sharp drop to the $0.43 - $0.46/lb range, then gradually recovered to trade near $0.50/lb before a late-year rally pushed bids to $0.55/lb.
  • Price Range (New Crop #2 Kabuli): Bids were volatile, initially appearing strong near $0.45/lb before softening, then recovering to trade at or above old crop levels, reaching $0.50/lb and higher.
  • Dominant Theme: A market reset after a sharp early-year price correction, followed by a slow, grinding recovery supported by global supply uncertainty and steady North American demand.
  • Pivotal Event: The sudden price collapse in January, which cooled an overheated market and forced sellers to recalibrate their price expectations for the remainder of the year.
  • Market Sentiment: Bearish to start, shifting to neutral, and turning cautiously bullish by year-end as global supply concerns mounted.

Narrative

The 2022 chickpea market began with a harsh correction. After a period of strength, prices for #2 Kabuli chickpeas dropped sharply from over $0.50/lb to the mid-$0.40s as international demand grew quiet and buyers balked at high North American values. This reset the tone for the first half of the year, creating a market where buyers, led by the consistent US pet food sector, purchased hand-to-mouth. New crop bids were initially strong but softened in sympathy with the spot market before stabilizing.

As the year progressed, a slow recovery began to take hold. Global events, including uncertainty around Russian exports and a smaller-than-expected Mexican crop, shifted focus back to North American supplies. Bids for both old and new crop gradually firmed up, converging around the $0.50/lb mark. The market truly gained momentum late in the year, with a lack of aggressive farmer selling and renewed buyer interest pushing bids to a strong $0.55/lb, capping a year that started with a bust and ended with a boom.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The stakeholder facing the toughest choice was the grower with unpriced 2021 chickpeas in the bin. After the January price drop, their dilemma was whether to liquidate their remaining inventory to mitigate further losses or to hold on, trusting that tight domestic supplies and future global demand would eventually lead to a price recovery. Those who panicked and sold into the initial weakness locked in a significant loss from the previous highs. The winners were the patient sellers who held their nerve through the quiet spring and summer months, ultimately capitalizing on the strong rally in the final quarter of the year.

The Lasting Echo

2022 demonstrated that even with tight domestic stocks, the North American chickpea market cannot remain an island of high prices when global buyers can source cheaper alternatives, at least temporarily.

2021

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (#2 Kabuli): Began the year in the doldrums at $0.24-$0.27/lb, awakening mid-year to rally spectacularly to the $0.60-$0.65/lb range by late fall.
  • Dominant Theme: A classic sleeper market turnaround, where a massive inventory overhang was finally eroded by steady exports just as a severe drought crippled new crop production, causing a price surge.
  • Pivotal Event: The release of StatsCan data in late summer confirming a 72% year-over-year drop in production, which validated the severity of the drought and ignited an aggressive bidding war for remaining old crop stocks.
  • Pivotal Event (Runner-up): A World Food Program tender in February that provided the first spark of life, nudging prices up to $0.30/lb and signaling that demand was beginning to chew through the surplus.
  • Market Sentiment: Started dormant and bearish, shifted to cautiously optimistic in the spring, and became explosively bullish from August onward.

Narrative

The chickpea market underwent a dramatic transformation in 2021, evolving from a stagnant, oversupplied market into a high-flying bull. The year began under the weight of a significant carryover, with bids for #2 large Kabulis languishing in the mid-20-cent range. Growers were disincentivized, and early forecasts correctly predicted a sharp drop in seeded acres.

The first signs of life appeared in February, when a World Food Program tender briefly pushed bids to the $0.30/lb mark, signaling that underlying demand was starting to work through the burdensome old crop stocks. While the market remained quiet through spring, this subtle firming was a prelude to the main event: the summer drought. As extreme heat and lack of moisture settled over the Prairies and the US Northern Plains, yield potential for the already-reduced acreage collapsed.

News of a potential crop failure, combined with improving export numbers, finally broke the market's inertia. From late summer into fall, prices exploded. Bids surged from the low 30s past 40, 50, and ultimately peaked over 60 cents/lb. A key feature of the rally was the concern over seed size, with the drought expected to produce a crop dominated by smaller calibers, placing a significant premium on large-sized product. After years of being a laggard, chickpeas emphatically rejoined the bull market for specialty crops.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The primary dilemma was for the long-suffering chickpea grower who had been storing multiple years of inventory. The choice was whether to sell into the initial signs of life at $0.30-$0.35/lb, finally achieving a modest profit and freeing up bin space, or to hold, gambling that the drought would trigger a major rally. Those who sold early secured a long-awaited sale but missed the spectacular upside. The clear winners were patient growers who held their inventory until the post-harvest panic, selling into a market above 50 or 60 cents/lb. The losers were buyers who waited too long to cover their needs, assuming the large carry-in would keep prices suppressed, only to be forced to chase bids to multi-year highs.

The Lasting Echo

The 2021 chickpea rally was a textbook lesson in how even a massive, multi-year supply overhang can be completely erased when production collapses, reminding the market that no surplus is infinite.

2020

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (#2 Kabuli): Stuck in a tight range of $0.25-$0.28/lb for most of the year, with a brief appearance of a $0.30/lb bid for deferred delivery.
  • Market Position: A market of last resort, defined by massive carry-over stocks and chronically weak demand, with prices reflecting storage costs rather than new fundamentals.
  • Dominant Theme: Stagnation. A market overwhelmed by multiple years of excess supply, where reduced acres and minor global production issues were powerless to spark a recovery.
  • Pivotal Event: The realization that even a global pandemic, which spurred panic-buying in other pulses, could not stimulate meaningful demand for chickpeas, confirming the depth of the supply problem.
  • Market Sentiment: Persistently Bearish.

Narrative

The 2020 chickpea market was a study in stagnation, aptly described as a "sensory deprivation tank" where outside news failed to penetrate the crushing weight of domestic oversupply. Prices for #2 Kabuli chickpeas began the year locked in a tight $0.25-$0.28/lb range and barely moved for twelve months. Both sellers and buyers were in a holding pattern: growers, unwilling to sell at a loss, kept bin doors shut, while buyers, content with ample global supplies, felt no urgency to bid up.

Efforts to spark a rally proved futile. Reports of lower seeded acres in Canada, the US, and Mexico were shrugged off, as the massive carry-over from previous seasons was more than enough to satisfy the trickle of export demand. Even the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused a surge in other pulse markets, failed to generate significant buying interest. The market's immobility was so profound that even late-year concerns over smaller caliber size in the new crop and potential quality issues in Argentina failed to move the needle. While feed chickpea values saw some late-year strength, the market for food-grade product remained a waiting game, with any price recovery viewed as a slow, multi-year process.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The central dilemma was faced by the grower holding multiple years of inventory. They had to decide whether to finally capitulate and sell at painfully low prices to generate cash flow and free up bin space for more profitable crops, or to continue incurring storage costs in the hope of an eventual, but distant, market turnaround. There were no clear winners in this market. The closest were growers who managed to move small, specific lots of feed-grade or premium-sized chickpeas to niche buyers. The losers were the vast majority holding large inventories, who saw another year of depreciation and missed opportunities in rallying crop markets.

The Lasting Echo

The 2020 chickpea market was a stark reminder that even a significant reduction in acres cannot spark a price recovery when a market is burdened by the inventory of several previous production cycles.

2019

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Large Kabuli): $0.22 - $0.29/lb FOB farm.
  • Price Spreads: Frontier varieties consistently traded at a $0.02/lb discount to Orion/Leader types. Feed quality was valued significantly lower, from $0.18/lb down to $0.10/lb.
  • Dominant Theme: A market suffocated by supply, with record carryover stocks in North America neutralizing any bullish sentiment from reduced acreage or weather concerns in India.
  • Pivotal Event: The January realization that acres would be down but that the massive 2018 carry-in would prevent any significant price recovery, setting a stagnant tone for the year.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish. Despite being a relative price leader among pulses, the mood was one of resignation to a long, slow grind through massive inventories.

Narrative

The 2019 chickpea market was a story of digestion. Following a huge 2018 crop, North America entered the year with burdensome supplies that effectively capped any price potential. Early-year bids for #2 large Kabuli types sat in a respectable $0.27-$0.29/lb FOB range, but the market lacked any upward momentum. Talk of a dry Rabi crop in India and projections of a 25-50% drop in Canadian seeded acres provided glimmers of hope, but they were consistently extinguished by the reality of record-high stocks on both sides of the border.

As the year wore on, prices slowly eroded, slipping into the $0.23-$0.25/lb range. The market became a waiting game, with buyers showing little urgency and growers reluctant to sell at declining values. A difficult Canadian harvest with significant quality issues, particularly sprouting, provided a late-year spark for high-quality product, with bids for #2s firming back to $0.26-$0.28/lb. However, this created a bifurcated market, with a large volume of sample-grade product trading at a steep discount, often below $0.14/lb. Desi chickpeas remained a phantom market for much of the year, with little buyer interest until late fall.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The year's defining dilemma fell to the grower planning 2019 seeding. They faced a choice: lock in new crop production contracts at uninspiring but secure prices in the $0.25-$0.27/lb range, or plant without a contract, hoping for a market rally. This was a gamble on whether a smaller North American crop could single-handedly overcome the massive supply overhang. Growers who took the production contracts secured a floor price and movement, emerging as winners in a market that offered few upside surprises. Those who planted open, anticipating a price spike, were largely disappointed as carryover stocks kept values suppressed throughout the growing season.

The Lasting Echo

In 2019, the chickpea market proved that last year's supply is this year's price ceiling, demonstrating that even a significant acreage reduction cannot spark a rally when bins are already full.

2018

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Kabuli): Old crop started near $0.55-$0.65/lb; new crop contracts eroded from $0.39/lb down to $0.23/lb by year-end.
  • Price Range (Desi): Began near $0.235/lb before falling with the broader market.
  • Dominant Theme: A classic boom-and-bust cycle, where historically high prices triggered a massive global acreage response that systematically dismantled values throughout the year.
  • Pivotal Event: Early-year planting reports from Mexico and India confirming significant acreage increases, which signaled the definitive end of the price boom and caused buyers to aggressively lower new crop bids.
  • Market Sentiment: Sharply bearish; a market in freefall as buyers retreated in the face of oncoming global supply.

Narrative

2018 was the year the great chickpea bull market came to a spectacular end. While the year began with remnant strength in the spot market for old crop, the shadow of a massive global acreage response loomed large. As planting reports from Mexico, India, and North America confirmed a surge in production, buyers systematically walked back new crop bids. Contracts that started near $0.39/lb were methodically lowered throughout the spring and summer, eventually settling in the low $0.20s/lb. For growers, it was a race to lock in profitability before the price floor completely gave out. The narrative was one of inevitable decline, driven by the market's powerful and predictable reaction to its own previous success.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The critical decision fell to the grower finalizing their 2018 seeding plan. The choice was to lock in new crop chickpeas early at historically strong—though rapidly declining—prices like $0.38/lb, or to wait and plant uncontracted, hoping the market would somehow hold. The clear winners were those who contracted early, securing profitability before the global supply glut crushed prices. The losers were those who held out for a price recovery or sold uncontracted bushels into a collapsing post-harvest market.

The Lasting Echo

The chickpea market in 2018 provided a textbook lesson that high prices are often the cure for high prices, triggering a global supply response that can unravel a bull market in a single season.

2017

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Old Crop #2 Kabuli): $0.60/lb to $0.72/lb FOB farm
  • Price Range (New Crop #2 Kabuli): $0.38/lb to $0.52/lb FOB farm
  • Dominant Theme: A historic price rally driven by tight global supply, followed by the inevitable market response of increased global acreage.
  • Pivotal Event: The availability of new crop contracts at over 40-50¢/lb with an Act of God clause, which signaled extreme demand and incentivized a massive acreage increase for 2018.
  • Market Sentiment: Euphoric turning Anxious. Extreme bullishness on old crop gave way to concern that the high prices were sowing the seeds of a future market collapse.

Narrative

The chickpea market in 2017 was a masterclass in supply and demand extremes. Tight global stocks, exacerbated by production issues in Argentina, sent old crop prices for large Kabuli chickpeas soaring to historic highs, with bids reaching an incredible 65-72¢/lb FOB farm. Demand was so aggressive that buyers were paying a premium for all sizes and grades just to secure tonnes.

This unprecedented rally created a massive incentive to plant. Buyers, desperate to secure future supply, offered new crop contracts for 2018 at highly profitable levels, initially over 50¢/lb and settling in the high-30s to mid-40s. While Canadian yields in 2017 were below average, the price signal was clear globally. By late fall, the narrative began to shift. The market, having solved the shortage by screaming for more acres, started to price in the expected production response from Mexico and India. As a result, spot bids began to soften from their dizzying peaks as the year drew to a close.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key stakeholder was the grower with uncontracted 2017 chickpeas. Their dilemma was whether to sell into the historic 60-70¢/lb rally or hold out for even higher prices. Simultaneously, they had to decide whether to lock in new crop production at 40¢+ levels. The clear winners were growers who sold their old crop near the peak and locked in a portion of their 2018 crop, capitalizing on both ends of the price cycle. The losers were those who held old crop too long, only to see bids begin to erode, and those who hesitated on new crop contracts, missing the best opportunities.

The Lasting Echo

Nothing cures high prices like high prices, as a market screaming for supply will inevitably incentivize a global production response that brings it back to earth.

Disclaimer: My analytical process is a hybrid model, combining customized AI tools with manual expertise. The AI is trained for initial data synthesis and signal detection, leaving the crucial work of strategic interpretation and final analysis to me.