2025

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Futures): Volatile range from a low of $555/MT to a high of $739/MT.
  • Dominant Theme: Extreme price volatility driven by a succession of geopolitical trade shocks, primarily tariffs and tariff threats from the U.S. and China.
  • Pivotal Event: China's March announcement of a 100% import tariff on Canadian-origin canola oil and meal, which caused an immediate and steep decline in futures.
  • Market Sentiment: Volatile, swinging between bullish supply fundamentals and bearish trade policy.

Narrative

The 2025 canola market was a rollercoaster of geopolitical shocks and supply-side tension. The year began with positive momentum, as March futures rallied from a late-December low of $592/MT to over $625/MT, with strong domestic crush demand tightening the balance sheet. However, this optimism was short-lived. In late January, the market was whipsawed by uncertainty surrounding a new U.S. administration's tariff threats, causing futures to fluctuate wildly.

The most significant blow came in March when China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal. The market reacted instantly and severely, with May futures plummeting from around $680/MT to a low of $555/MT. For the remainder of the spring and summer, the market was caught in a tug-of-war. Tightening old crop supplies and dry growing conditions provided underlying support, allowing prices to claw back some losses and climb back above $700/MT. Yet, the constant threat of trade disruptions with both the U.S. and China capped any sustained rally, leaving the market volatile and highly sensitive to news headlines. Domestic crush margins remained a bright spot, but the export outlook was perpetually clouded.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The defining dilemma of the year was for the grower attempting to market their crop amidst unprecedented trade volatility. The choice was agonizing: sell into the brief, sharp rallies driven by tightening supply, or hold inventory and risk catastrophic losses from the next tariff announcement. Growers who were nimble, selling portions of their crop into strength (such as the brief push to $15/bu delivered in February or the recovery in June), were the winners. They mitigated risk and captured good value. Those who held on, waiting for a return to pre-tariff stability, were punished by the market shocks, ultimately selling for significantly lower values or carrying unpriced inventory into an uncertain new crop year.

The Lasting Echo

The 2025 canola market served as a brutal lesson in how quickly geopolitical risk can overwhelm and erase strong supply-and-demand fundamentals.

2024

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: Cash bids were volatile, ranging from below $12.00/bu during late-year lows to over $14.00/bu during spring and summer rallies. November futures swung from a low near $565/MT to highs over $675/MT.
  • Dominant Theme: A market caught between strong domestic crush demand and the immense geopolitical risk associated with its primary export customer, China.
  • Pivotal Event: China’s announcement in September of an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola, which immediately pressured prices and cast a long shadow over the market for the remainder of the year.
  • Market Sentiment: A tug-of-war between Bullish domestic fundamentals (strong crush margins) and Bearish geopolitical risk (China trade).

Narrative

The 2024 canola market was a turbulent affair, defined by a constant battle between robust domestic demand and unnerving geopolitical threats. The year began on a weak footing, with prices trending down and demand being sustained primarily by a relentless pace from local crushers. A welcome rally emerged in the spring, driven by a brief return of Chinese purchasing, which pushed values back above $14/bu and offered growers a critical window to make sales. However, this optimism was shattered in September when China launched an anti-dumping investigation, a direct response to Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. The move sent a chill through the market, causing prices to retreat and reminding the entire value chain of the 2019 dispute. While strong crush margins and concerns over a heat-impacted harvest provided some support, the China situation capped any significant rallies and became the dominant, bearish narrative heading into year-end.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The defining dilemma was for the canola grower holding unpriced 2023 crop in the spring. They had to decide whether to sell into the strong rally driven by renewed Chinese buying and excellent crush margins, or hold on, betting that summer weather concerns would drive prices even higher. Selling in the spring locked in excellent profits and eliminated geopolitical risk. Holding meant embracing that risk for a shot at a higher price. The winners were the producers who aggressively sold into the spring and summer strength, prioritizing the high-probability sale over the possibility of a weather-market peak. The losers were those who held too much inventory into the fall, only to be caught by the anti-dumping investigation that eroded prices and reintroduced significant market uncertainty.

The Lasting Echo

The year was a stark lesson in how quickly geopolitical retaliation can destabilize the canola market, proving that even with record domestic crush demand, access to the world’s largest buyer remains the most critical—and fragile—price determinant.

2023

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Futures): ~$650 - $870/MT
  • Price Range (Spot Bids): ~$13.00 - $19.50/bu delivered
  • Dominant Theme: A market collapse driven by a convergence of burdensome global vegetable oil supplies and waning export demand.
  • Pivotal Event: The mid-March price collapse, where futures shed roughly $60/MT in a single week, breaking through the psychological $800/MT floor and signaling a major trend reversal.
  • Market Sentiment: Stagnant turning to Sharply Bearish

Narrative

Canola began 2023 in a state of stagnation. Futures hovered in a tight range around $870/MT, with local bids struggling to break the $20.00/bu barrier. The market was caught between strong domestic crush margins and a global vegetable oil complex weighed down by a record Brazilian soybean crop and a large Australian rapeseed harvest. This tension created a sideways market where price gains were consistently erased.

The dam broke in mid-March. A perfect storm of factors—including the reality of the massive South American soy crop hitting the market, reduced demand from the EU, and a large Australian crop competing for market share—sent futures into a freefall. Prices crashed through the $800/MT floor, losing over $100/MT in just over two weeks and dragging local bids down toward the $17.00/bu mark.

The market never recovered. After a brief technical bounce in the spring, the downtrend resumed. By late spring and early summer, futures were trading below $700/MT, and cash bids in some regions had fallen into the $14-$15/bu range. A mid-summer rally driven by drought concerns provided a temporary reprieve, pushing values back over $800/MT, but it was short-lived. As harvest pressure mounted and a StatsCan report in late fall unexpectedly increased production estimates from previous years, the market resumed its slide, ending the year with futures struggling to hold $650/MT and cash bids in the low $14/bu range. A notable feature throughout the year was the significant basis spread, with western Prairie bids consistently commanding a premium of up to $1.00/bu over those in the east.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The defining dilemma rested with the unhedged canola grower in January and February. They faced a stagnant but historically high market, with new crop bids around $18.00/bu, and had to decide whether to sell into that sideways market or hold out for a price breakout.

  • Winners: Growers who recognized the global supply pressures and sold into the high-priced stability of the first quarter. They captured the best prices of the year before the market turned, protecting their equity from the subsequent collapse.
  • Losers: Growers who held onto unpriced inventory past March. They were caught in the dramatic downturn and were forced to either capitulate at much lower prices or carry expensive inventory into an uncertain new crop year.

The Lasting Echo

The 2023 canola collapse was a brutal lesson in how quickly a market can turn when burdensome global supplies overwhelm strong domestic demand fundamentals.

2022

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Old Crop): An extreme range, with futures starting above $1,000/MT and rallying to levels that supported cash bids of $25.00/bu - $27.00/bu, before a summer correction brought values back.
  • Price Range (New Crop): New crop futures rallied from below $800/MT to over $1,100/MT, allowing for unprecedented forward contracts between $18.00/bu and $25.00/bu.
  • Dominant Theme: Unprecedented volatility driven by a perfect storm of tight domestic supplies, the war in Ukraine disrupting global vegetable oil markets, and strong spillover from soaring crude oil and soy complex prices.
  • Pivotal Event: Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, which acted as a massive accelerant on an already bullish market, pushing both old and new crop prices into uncharted territory.
  • Market Sentiment: Extremely bullish and volatile, followed by a period of sharp correction and continued price uncertainty.

Narrative

The story of the 2022 canola market was one of historic volatility and explosive price action. Starting the year on an already firm footing due to the tight 2021 supply, the market was supercharged by the geopolitical shock of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. With the Black Sea region's sunflower oil supply thrown into chaos, global vegetable oil markets soared, and canola was pulled along for a wild ride. Old crop futures climbed relentlessly, pushing local cash bids to once-unthinkable levels of $25.00/bu, $26.00/bu, and even higher.

The rally created a powerful updraft for new crop values, as buyers scrambled to secure future supply. New crop contracts, which had already seemed strong near $18.00/bu, were bid up aggressively, with growers able to lock in prices well north of $20.00/bu and even touching $25.00/bu in some cases. However, the extreme highs were met with an equally sharp summer correction, as improved Prairie moisture and profit-taking brought futures back down. While the peak had passed, prices remained at historically exceptional levels, closing out a year that redefined the meaning of risk and reward in the canola space.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The most critical decision fell to the canola grower with both unpriced old crop and uncontracted 2022 production. The dilemma was when to sell into a parabolic, seemingly limitless rally. The fear of selling too early and leaving dollars on the table was immense, yet the risk of being caught at the top of a historic bubble was just as severe. Winners were growers who methodically scaled into sales, rewarding the market on the way up by selling portions of their old and new crop at successively higher price points. The losers were those who held out for the absolute peak, only to be caught in the summer's sharp correction, watching their on-paper profits evaporate.

The Lasting Echo

The 2022 market served as a powerful lesson in how a geopolitical black swan event can overwhelm fundamentals, creating once-in-a-generation pricing opportunities while simultaneously introducing extreme downside risk.

2021

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Futures): March futures started near $650/t, with the rally pushing nearby futures to test an incredible $1,000/t by late fall.
  • Price Range (Cash): Spot bids began the year around $15.00/bu, surging with the market to exceed $20.00/bu and even approach $23.00/bu by Q4.
  • Dominant Theme: A perfect storm of relentless global demand for vegetable oils, critically tight domestic stocks, and a catastrophic drought that sent prices on a historic, near-vertical ascent.
  • Pivotal Event: The summer heat dome event, which confirmed a massive Canadian production failure and transformed an already bullish market into a supply-rationing panic.
  • Market Sentiment: Aggressively bullish all year, with periods of extreme volatility as the market struggled to find a price high enough to slow down demand.

Narrative

The 2021 canola market was a story of unrelenting bullish forces culminating in a historic price explosion. The year opened with a powerful tailwind from soaring soybean futures and dryness in South America, immediately pushing prices to multi-year highs. With nearby futures surpassing $650/t and cash bids hitting $15.00/bu in January, the market was already signaling dangerously tight supplies.

Throughout the first half, every market dip was met with aggressive buying, as strong crush margins and robust export programs kept draining on-farm stocks. The tension was palpable, but the true catalyst was the arrival of the summer drought. The extreme heat and lack of moisture across the Prairies decimated what was supposed to be a large crop, shifting the market's focus from managing tight supplies to confronting an outright production failure.

This realization sent prices parabolic. July futures breached $900/t, and by the fourth quarter, nearby futures were challenging the unheard-of $1,000/t level. Cash bids followed suit, blasting through $20.00/bu and reaching toward $23.00/bu as crushers and exporters fought for the few remaining bushels. Even as political tensions with China simmered in the background, the sheer force of the supply-demand imbalance overwhelmed all other factors, making 2021 the year canola prices were forced to a level high enough to destroy demand.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

For a canola grower, the year's critical dilemma was when to sell into a seemingly limitless rally. The choice was between booking breathtakingly profitable sales early (e.g., $17/bu) versus holding out for the psychologically significant $20/bu mark, all while watching their own crop wither in the field. The winners were those who had even average yields and sold in increments, capturing the stunning rise into the fall. The most significant losers were end-users—crushers and exporters—who were caught short and forced to pay record prices to fulfill commitments, watching their margins evaporate. Growers whose crops were a total failure were also casualties, unable to participate in the rally and facing enormous costs for the next season.

The Lasting Echo

2021 definitively proved that Canadian canola is a critical lynchpin in the global vegetable oil complex, demonstrating that a severe Prairie production failure can single-handedly force the world market to ration demand at historic price levels.

2020

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Futures): Began the year testing resistance near $485/t, dipped below $450/t during peak COVID uncertainty, then staged a massive rally to break $600/t by year-end.
  • Dominant Theme: A powerful rally in the second half of the year, driven by a tightening domestic balance sheet, strong crush margins, and a bull market across the entire global oilseed complex.
  • Pivotal Event: The December StatsCan production report, which revised the Canadian crop size downward to 18.7 MMT, confirming tightening supplies and adding significant fuel to an already-climbing market.
  • Market Sentiment: Anxious to Neutral early in the year, shifting to unequivocally Bullish by late summer.

Narrative

Canola's 2020 journey was a dramatic V-shaped recovery that rewarded patient sellers. The year started with cautious optimism based on US-China trade hopes, but this quickly evaporated with the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, rail blockades, and ongoing diplomatic tensions with China. Futures prices slid, reflecting the immense uncertainty weighing on global trade. Through this period, however, strong domestic crush demand provided a solid floor under the market, preventing a total collapse and keeping cash basis levels respectable.

The market's tone began to shift in late summer. A powerful rally in the soybean and vegetable oil complex provided a significant tailwind, pulling canola futures steadily higher. This global strength was compounded by a tightening Canadian story; robust export and crush demand began to eat into supplies, while late-season heat raised concerns about yield potential. The rally accelerated through the fall, smashing through the psychological $500/t barrier and continuing to climb. The final catalyst was the December StatsCan report, which cut production estimates and confirmed that Canada’s carry-out stocks would be much tighter than anticipated. This news, combined with an Argentine labour strike disrupting soy shipments, pushed January futures past an incredible $600/t, a level not seen in years.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The defining choice of the year was for the grower at harvest time. The dilemma was whether to sell off the combine at prices near $10.00/bu—already a profitable level that de-risked their operation—or to store the crop, betting that strong global demand and a tightening Canadian balance sheet would fuel a significant post-harvest rally. The clear winners were growers who found the bin space and financial flexibility to hold their canola, as they were able to sell into a historic rally that added more than $3.00/bu to their bottom line by year-end. Those who sold for fall cash flow secured a profit but missed out on the market's biggest surge in nearly a decade.

The Lasting Echo

The 2020 rally was a textbook lesson in how a strong domestic demand base can buffer a market during periods of export uncertainty, creating the foundation for a spectacular price response when global fundamentals turn bullish.

2019

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: Approx. $9.35 - $11.10/bu delivered plant, with the high mark seen early for deferred summer delivery before the market slump.
  • Dominant Theme: A market held hostage by geopolitics, as the sudden loss of the Chinese market shattered stability and created a burdensome carryout.
  • Pivotal Event: The March 1st announcement that China had halted canola imports from a major Canadian exporter, which immediately sent futures tumbling and redefined the market for the rest of the year.
  • Market Sentiment: Bearish. What began as a sideways, range-bound market quickly turned negative, with sentiment weighed down by the Chinese dispute, record-high stocks, and spillover pressure from weak soybean markets.

Narrative

Canola’s 2019 story was one of an abrupt and punishing market shock. The year began calmly, with prices grinding sideways around $10.50/bu delivered, with premiums available for summer movement reaching up to $11.10/bu. This stability was shattered in March when China, citing pest concerns widely believed to be a political pretext, began revoking import licenses from Canadian exporters.

The impact was immediate and severe. Futures dropped over $35/MT in a matter of weeks, erasing deferred delivery premiums and dragging cash bids below the key $10.00/bu level. The market was suddenly faced with the prospect of a 1 MMT drop in export demand and a ballooning carryout projected to exceed 3.5 MMT. For the remainder of the year, canola traded under this dark cloud. Brief rallies were driven by spillover strength from soybeans or a weakening Canadian dollar, but they were consistently capped by the reality of the Chinese situation and heavy on-farm supplies. A difficult harvest with quality concerns provided some support, but not enough to fundamentally alter the bearish narrative.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The stakeholder facing the most acute dilemma was the Canadian grower with significant unpriced canola in the bin. In the wake of the Chinese ban, they were forced to choose between several poor options: sell into a falling market to manage cash flow and eliminate risk, hold onto inventory in the hope of a swift political resolution that never materialized, or contract for deferred delivery at prices far below the pre-crisis highs. Growers who took advantage of early-year deferred bids above $11.00/bu were the undisputed winners. Those who held on past March saw their asset value decline and were left trying to capture small rallies in a fundamentally broken market, a frustrating exercise in damage control.

The Lasting Echo

The 2019 crisis was a stark lesson in canola’s heavy reliance on a single customer, demonstrating how geopolitical friction can override market fundamentals with devastating speed.

2018

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: Futures ranged from approx. $490/MT to over $530/MT; delivered cash bids often traded near $11.00 - $12.00/bu.
  • Dominant Theme: A market heavily influenced by external factors, primarily the volatile soybean complex and the emerging US-China trade dispute.
  • Pivotal Event: China's proposed retaliatory tariffs on US soybeans in April, which created speculative hope for increased Canadian canola exports and briefly supported prices.
  • Market Sentiment: Mixed; bullishness from soy market strength and a weaker Canadian dollar was consistently tempered by bearish pressure from a potential US-China resolution and harvest progress.

Narrative

The story of canola in 2018 was one of a follower, not a leader. Its price action was a direct reflection of the drama unfolding in the Chicago soybean pits and the escalating political tensions between Washington and Beijing. Early-year rallies were built on the back of South American weather concerns that boosted the entire oilseed complex. The mid-year narrative then became dominated by the "what-if" of the trade war, offering speculative hope that Canadian canola could displace US soybeans in the critical Chinese market. However, a strengthening Canadian dollar at times and prospects of a large domestic crop kept a lid on any major breakout. Ultimately, the market remained range-bound, dictated by geopolitical headlines and the performance of its American counterpart.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key dilemma belonged to the canola marketer watching the US-China trade dispute. The decision was whether to sell into rallies driven by speculative trade war headlines or to hold for a clearer, more concrete signal that Canada would actually capture a larger share of Chinese demand. Those who sold into the speculative strength capitalized on the year's best pricing opportunities. In contrast, those who waited for a confirmed fundamental shift were often left holding inventory as markets softened on news of potential trade resolutions.

The Lasting Echo

The year served as a stark reminder that canola's fate is inextricably linked to the soybean complex, making it a passenger in market moves driven by international politics and southern hemisphere weather.

2017

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: $10.50/bu to $11.50/bu delivered
  • Dominant Theme: A market propped up by macroeconomic forces, namely a weak Canadian dollar and strength in the soy complex, which overshadowed domestic supply fundamentals.
  • Pivotal Event: The December StatsCan report, which pegged the 2017 crop at a record 21.3 million tonnes, injecting significant bearish pressure into a market that had been trading on external strength.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish turning Cautious. Sentiment was positive for most of the fall due to supportive external factors, but the record production numbers created significant uncertainty heading into year-end.

Narrative

The canola market in the latter half of 2017 traded less on its own fundamentals and more as a reflection of outside forces. Prices found consistent support not from tight supplies, but from a rally in the soybean market and, crucially, a weakening Canadian dollar. The falling loonie made Canadian canola cheaper for foreign buyers and improved domestic crush margins, providing a powerful tailwind that pushed delivered bids well above $11.00/bu.

This external strength was essential, as the domestic picture was becoming increasingly bearish. Harvest progressed smoothly, and by early December, StatsCan confirmed the market's fears, announcing a record-breaking 21.3 MMT crop. The massive supply figure should have sent prices tumbling, but the concurrent drop in the Canadian dollar cushioned the blow, allowing the market to absorb the news with only modest losses. The year ended with a clear tension between record domestic supply and supportive global macro trends.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The canola producer's dilemma was whether to trust the macro-driven rally or respect the bearish domestic supply numbers. The choice was to either sell into the strength provided by the weak dollar and strong soy markets throughout the fall or wait, hoping the trend would continue. The winners were growers who layered in sales during the fall, recognizing that the market's strength was fragile and vulnerable to the inevitable confirmation of a record crop. The losers were those who held unpriced inventory into the December StatsCan report, which removed a key pillar of support and capped the market's upside potential.

The Lasting Echo

A record domestic supply can have its bearish impact neutralized when powerful macroeconomic tailwinds, like a favorable currency exchange rate, are blowing in the opposite direction.

Disclaimer: My analytical process is a hybrid model, combining customized AI tools with manual expertise. The AI is trained for initial data synthesis and signal detection, leaving the crucial work of strategic interpretation and final analysis to me.