2025

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Old Crop): $0.27/lb to $0.31/lb FOB farm.
  • Dominant Theme: A market weighed down by heavy on-farm stocks and expectations of increased acreage, leading to a steady, sideways-to-lower price trend.
  • Pivotal Event: StatsCan's June report confirming a 10% year-over-year increase in seeded acres, which solidified the bearish sentiment and suppressed any potential for a price rally.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish.

Narrative

The canary seed market spent 2025 in a state of quiet stagnation, defined by a comfortable supply situation that capped any significant upward price potential. The year began with bids similar to pre-Christmas levels, fluctuating day-to-day in a hand-to-mouth market around 30-31 cents/lb FOB. While sales were consistent, they were met with a steady trickle of grower selling, preventing any supply tightness from developing.

Despite reports of strong export movement, particularly to Mexico, the market failed to experience its typical seasonal price rally. The primary reason was a heavy supply story: on-farm stocks were estimated to be 58% higher than the previous year. This overhang was compounded by StatsCan projecting a 10% increase in seeded acres for the new crop. As a result, both old and new crop prices began to converge, with new crop bids settling in the 27-28 cent/lb range. The market was sufficiently supplied, and buyers felt no urgency to bid aggressively, leading to a slow price erosion as harvest approached.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key dilemma was for growers holding significant unpriced inventory from the previous year. They had to decide whether to accept the steady but unimpressive bids in the 29-30 cent/lb range throughout the spring or hold on in the hope of a seasonal price lift that never materialized. Growers who methodically sold into the market early on, acknowledging the limited upside, successfully managed their cash flow and bin space. The losers were those who held their entire inventory, betting on a rally; they were ultimately forced to sell at lower, harvest-pressured prices or carry over even larger stocks into another well-supplied year.

The Lasting Echo

In a market with heavy carry-over, even strong export demand cannot spark a rally when buyers know that more supply is always waiting in the wings.

2024

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: Old crop values were remarkably stable, holding a tight range of $0.40-$0.45/lb FOB farm. New crop contracts were consistently bid at $0.34-$0.36/lb.
  • Dominant Theme: Unwavering stability at historically strong price levels, creating a low-stress, profitable marketing environment.
  • Pivotal Event: The consistent availability of new crop production contracts with an Act of God clause, which provided growers with a powerful and popular risk management tool.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral to Quietly Bullish. Buyers were well-covered and never chased the market, but prices remained firm, rewarding methodical selling.

Narrative

In a year marked by volatility in other crops, the canaryseed market was an island of calm and profitability. Prices began the year at a strong 41 cents per pound and demonstrated extraordinary stability, rarely straying from a $0.40-$0.45/lb FOB farm range for old crop. The narrative was one of quiet confidence; buyers were never aggressive but consistently present, while producers sold methodically without overwhelming demand. This equilibrium kept the market trading sideways for months. New crop contracts were equally steady, consistently offered in the 34 t0 36 cent range with a valuable Act of God clause, which became a favored marketing tool for growers. While export pace was not record-setting, it was sufficient to support prices, creating a year where consistent, disciplined selling of both old and new crop was rewarded with historically excellent returns without the anxiety of chasing market peaks.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key decision point fell to the grower finalizing their seeding intentions. They faced the choice of sticking with canaryseed, which offered historically strong and stable contract prices, or chasing the potentially higher but far more volatile prices seen in crops like green lentils or maple peas. Opting for canaryseed meant locking in a very good return with minimal risk via an Act ofGod contract. Chasing other markets offered a higher theoretical ceiling but came with the risk of a sharp correction and greater marketing stress. The winners were the risk-averse growers who booked a portion of their canaryseed acres on new crop contracts, securing strong, predictable margins. The losers were arguably few, but anyone who abandoned canaryseed for a more volatile crop and failed to market it effectively may have ended up with lower net returns and significantly more stress.

The Lasting Echo

The 2024 market served as a powerful reminder that in specialty crops, stable, historically high prices with low marketing stress can often be more profitable than the volatile highs of a headline-grabbing bull market.

2023

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Old Crop): $0.36 - $0.46/lb FOB farm/delivered
  • Price Range (New Crop): $0.34 - $0.36/lb FOB farm/delivered (with AOG)
  • Dominant Theme: A remarkably stable market balancing lower-than-average domestic supplies against quiet but steady export demand.
  • Pivotal Event: The early-year availability of new crop contracts at $0.36/lb with an Act of God clause, offering growers a historically strong and low-risk forward sales opportunity.
  • Market Sentiment: Stable Bullish

Narrative

The canary seed market in 2023 was a portrait of stability and strength, beginning the year with bids firm in the $0.38-$0.39/lb range. Unlike many other specialty crops that saw significant volatility, canary seed held a remarkably steady tone. This was supported by a fundamental backdrop of lower-than-average domestic supplies, as confirmed by a January StatsCan report, and a record pace of exports, particularly to Mexico.

Throughout the first half of the year, buyers consistently offered new crop production contracts in the $0.35-$0.36/lb range, most including a valuable 10 bu/acre Act of God clause. These programs were presented as one of the strongest low-risk marketing options available and saw steady grower uptake. As the year progressed, spot prices saw a modest rally, bumping up to the $0.40/lb level in late March and again in August as drought conditions raised concerns about production. By late fall, as harvest reports confirmed a smaller crop, prices firmed up further, reaching $0.46/lb.

Despite the fundamentally bullish supply situation, the market never saw a dramatic price explosion. Demand, while steady, was not aggressive enough to chase prices significantly higher, creating a balanced and predictable trading environment where both spot and new crop values remained at historically excellent levels. The price spread between old crop and new crop remained exceptionally narrow throughout the year, often only a penny or two, before converging completely by early fall.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key decision-maker was the grower with uncontracted canary seed facing new crop Act of God contracts at $0.35/lb in the spring. The dilemma was whether to lock in a guaranteed, historically high price with downside protection, or hold all production for the spot market in hopes of a major weather rally.

  • Winners: This was a win-win scenario. Growers who contracted early locked in excellent profits with zero production risk. Growers who waited were rewarded with a late-season rally that pushed spot prices into the mid-$0.40s/lb, providing an even greater return, albeit with the full weight of production risk.
  • Losers: There were virtually no losers in the 2023 canary seed market; any grower who produced a crop had the opportunity to sell at historically strong prices.

The Lasting Echo

In a year of wild market swings, canary seed demonstrated that a fundamentally tight supply chain, even with just steady demand, can create a uniquely stable and profitable environment for producers.

2022

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Old Crop): Opened near $0.50/lb, softened to a $0.44 - $0.48/lb range, and eventually settled near $0.40/lb by year-end.
  • Price Range (New Crop): Contracts started at $0.35 - $0.37/lb, rallied to $0.40/lb, and even saw bids at $0.43/lb before settling back to the $0.40/lb level.
  • Dominant Theme: A market characterized by a prolonged standoff between buyers content with their coverage and growers unwilling to sell into a quiet market, despite historically strong prices.
  • Pivotal Event: A brief price bump in the spring failed to spark a sustained rally, confirming that without aggressive new demand, the market was content to trade sideways.
  • Market Sentiment: Stagnant; a surprising lack of volatility given the tight on-farm supply situation.

Narrative

The canary seed market in 2022 was defined by a peculiar quietness. Despite opening the year with prices near a remarkable $0.50/lb, the market lacked the aggressive buyer demand needed to sustain momentum. It quickly settled into a standoff, with buyers appearing well-covered for nearby needs and growers, accustomed to the high prices, showing little urgency to sell. This dynamic created a stagnant, sideways market where prices slowly eroded from $0.50/lb to a range of $0.44-$0.48/lb through the winter.

New crop bids were historically attractive, starting in the mid-30-cent range and climbing to $0.40/lb and higher to entice acres. However, even these strong bids failed to generate significant excitement. The market demonstrated that while on-farm stocks were undoubtedly tight following the 2021 drought, the demand side of the equation was just as inelastic. By the end of the year, both old and new crop values had converged in the low 40-cent range, still a profitable level but a reflection of a market that had found its equilibrium without fanfare or fireworks.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key decision-maker was the grower holding unpriced 2021-crop canary seed. The dilemma was whether to sell into the historically high but quiet market early in the year or to hold out for a traditional spring rally driven by exporters needing to fill vessels. The market offered a high floor but no ceiling. Winners were those who accepted the market's tone and sold into the $0.45-$0.50/lb prices, recognizing that momentum was absent. Losers were those who held on, waiting for a price spike that never materialized, ultimately watching the market slowly drift back towards $0.40/lb.

The Lasting Echo

2022 proved that tight supplies alone are not enough to fuel a market rally; without aggressive end-user demand, even a historically high-priced market can become trapped in a frustratingly sideways pattern.

2021

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Old Crop): $0.31-$0.32/lb FOB farm early in the year, rallying to an incredible peak of $0.58/lb by late fall.
  • Price Range (New Crop): Opened at $0.24-$0.26/lb, climbing steadily to trade on par with old crop by year-end, peaking in the mid-50 cent range.
  • Dominant Theme: A market awakening from years of slumber, as tightening old crop stocks met a drought-reduced new crop, launching prices into territory not seen in over a decade.
  • Pivotal Event: The realization in late summer that the 2021 crop would be well below average due to drought, confirming that old crop inventories would not be replenished and triggering a price explosion.
  • Market Sentiment: Started firm and stable, turned decidedly bullish mid-year, and became explosive from August onward.

Narrative

Canary seed began 2021 in a state of stable equilibrium, with bids holding firm around $0.31-$0.32/lb, a comfortable level after years in the doldrums. The market was balanced, with buyers showing a "take it or leave it" approach. New crop contracts emerged early, offering a profitable starting point around $0.26-$0.28/lb, encouraging growers to hedge a portion of production against downside risk.

This stability, however, masked tightening fundamentals. As the year progressed, old crop supplies were steadily drawn down. The market's pivotal moment arrived with the summer heatwave. As drought conditions ravaged the Prairies, it became clear the 2021 harvest would be severely compromised, dashing any hopes of replenishing dwindling inventories. This realization lit a fuse under the market.

From August onward, prices launched into a historic rally. Old and new crop bids converged and surged, climbing from the low 30s to $0.40/lb, then $0.45/lb, and eventually peaking near an astonishing $0.58/lb in the fall. The rally finally paused late in the year, settling in the low-to-mid 50-cent range as record prices began to force demand rationing and substitution in end-use birdseed mixes. The year marked a dramatic emptying of bins that had been storing product for years, resetting the market's baseline for the foreseeable future.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The canary seed grower's dilemma centered on marketing psychology. After years of lackluster prices, the critical choice was whether to sell into the initial rally at $0.30-$0.35/lb—a historically strong and profitable price—or to hold on, believing the drought could propel the market into uncharted territory. Growers who sold early locked in excellent profits and could not be faulted. The biggest winners, however, were those who recognized the severity of the supply shortage and held at least a portion of their crop for the fall rally, capturing prices above 50 cents/lb. The primary losers were buyers who were short-covered, forced to chase the market to decade-plus highs to secure supply.

The Lasting Echo

The 2021 rally proved that even a niche market like canary seed can generate explosive returns when years of quiet inventory depletion collide with a major production shock.

2020

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: Opened the year around $0.28-$0.30/lb, dipped slightly mid-year, then rallied to a multi-year high of $0.32/lb by late fall.
  • Dominant Theme: Tightening domestic stocks and historically inaccurate inventory reporting created a slow-burning rally that defied typical harvest pressure.
  • Pivotal Event: A quiet but sustained buying campaign through the fall and winter, driven by exporters covering needs against a backdrop of dwindling and uncertain on-farm supply.
  • Market Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish, gaining confidence as the year progressed.

Narrative

The canary seed market spent 2020 shaking off years of sideways trade, building quiet momentum that culminated in a multi-year high. The year began with stable pricing around $0.28-$0.30/lb as buyers worked through existing contracts. Unlike other crops, the market saw no dramatic COVID-related shock, instead entering a prolonged period of quiet stability where bids held firm despite lulls in trading activity. This stability was rooted in a growing awareness of tight on-farm stocks, a fact consistently obscured by historically unreliable production and inventory data.

Instead of the typical harvest price slump, values held firm through summer and began to climb in the fall. Bids pushed past the $0.30/lb ceiling, eventually reaching $0.32/lb for new-year movement. This counter-seasonal strength was fueled by several factors: an Argentine crop that failed to pressure the market, rising prices for competing birdseed ingredients like US millet, and a dawning realization among buyers that the chronic under-reporting of farm stocks had masked a genuinely tight supply. By year-end, what began as a stable market had transformed into a firm, seller-driven environment, rewarding those who had held inventory.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key decision fell to the grower who had stored canary seed for multiple years. Their dilemma was whether to sell into the initial strength at $0.28-$0.29/lb—a solid price after years of stagnation—or to bet that the market's underlying tightness would finally break the historical price ceiling and push values above $0.30/lb. The winners were the patient holders who placed targets at or above $0.30/lb, capturing the full extent of the rally in the fourth quarter. The losers were those who, conditioned by years of flat markets, sold early and missed the final, most profitable leg of the price advance.

The Lasting Echo

The year proved that even in a niche market, fundamentally tight supplies will eventually overwhelm historical price ceilings, especially when official data fails to capture the true on-farm reality.

2019

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: $0.20/lb - $0.30/lb FOB farm.
  • Dominant Theme: A slow but steady climb to historically significant price levels, driven by a tightening supply narrative despite the market’s notorious history of under-reported stocks.
  • Pivotal Event: The price break to \$0.30/lb in the fall—a level seen only four times in 25 years—which finally began to pull long-held, unreported inventory onto the market.
  • Market Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish. While buyers remained aware of ample on-farm stocks, strong export pacing and concerns over a smaller, weather-delayed new crop sustained positive momentum.

Narrative

The canary seed market spent 2019 methodically building a case for higher prices, moving from a quiet $0.22-$0.23/lb FOB at the start of the year to a remarkable $0.30/lb by the fall. Initially, the market was a classic standoff: sellers held onto production waiting for a stronger bid, while buyers remained steadfast, confident that ample volume was available in farm bins.

Momentum began to build on the back of a strong export pace, the best since 2014/15, which suggested ending stocks could genuinely tighten. Bids firmed up to $0.23-$0.24/lb through the spring. The real catalyst, however, was the troubled 2019 growing season. A projected small crop, combined with a delayed harvest, created enough supply uncertainty to push bids to the historically significant $0.30/lb level. This price point proved to be the key that unlocked previously unoffered farm inventory, satisfying demand but also capping further upside as the market absorbed this "ghost" supply.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The key dilemma rested with the long-term holder, the grower who had binned canary seed for multiple years waiting for a market signal. Their choice was whether to sell into the rally at $0.24-$0.25/lb, securing a solid profit, or to hold out for a potential supply-squeeze spike reminiscent of past market highs. The growers who sold at the $0.30/lb peak were the clear winners, capitalizing on a rare pricing event. Those who continued to hold, betting on an even greater rally, risked seeing the market stabilize as their peers’ previously unreported stocks satisfied the very demand they were hoping would drive prices even higher.

The Lasting Echo

In 2019, the canary seed market once again proved that price has the final say in revealing the true size of on-farm supply.

2018

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: $0.195 - $0.23/lb FOB farm
  • Dominant Theme: Persistent market stagnation, characterized by hand-to-mouth buying and price competition from cheaper alternatives like millet.
  • Pivotal Event: The late-year price creep toward $0.23/lb, a modest but notable break from months of flat pricing that hinted at tightening on-farm supplies.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral to bearish; buyers remained comfortable with available supply for most of the year, while sellers were largely unenthusiastic about prevailing values.

Narrative

The canary seed market was defined by profound inactivity for most of 2018. Prices were anchored around $0.20/lb for months, suppressed by comfortable buyer inventories and competition from lower-cost birdseed ingredients. Trading was sluggish, with most sales driven by a grower’s need for cash flow or bin space rather than attractive pricing. The announcement of its approval for human consumption in Canada and the US provided a talking point but had no immediate market impact. The narrative only began to shift late in the year, as evidence of a smaller-than-reported crop and reduced seeded acres began to surface. This quieted acknowledgement of tighter supplies allowed bids to finally edge higher, rewarding the few patient sellers left in the market.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The primary dilemma was for the grower needing to generate cash flow. Their choice was to sell into a flat, uninspiring $0.20/lb market to manage finances or to hold inventory for an indefinite period, hoping for a rally that was far from guaranteed. The winners were the patient sellers with strong balance sheets who were able to hold their grain into the fourth quarter, capturing the modest late-year price improvement. Those who were forced to sell earlier for cash flow missed the only significant upside of the year.

The Lasting Echo

2018 demonstrated that even in a persistently flat market, underlying supply tightness can eventually force incremental price gains, rewarding growers with holding power.

2017

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: $0.20/lb to $0.21/lb FOB farm
  • Dominant Theme: Remarkable price stability driven by a balanced supply and demand picture.
  • Pivotal Event: The uneventful harvest, where hot, dry conditions allowed for rapid progress and produced a good quality crop, confirming that supplies would be adequate.
  • Market Sentiment: Neutral. The market was defined by a lack of volatility, with buyers and sellers locked in a narrow price range.

Narrative

The story of the canary seed market in 2017 was one of exceptional calm. From late fall through the end of the year, prices remained stubbornly locked in a 20-21¢/lb range. An early and efficient harvest, aided by hot and dry weather, brought a good quality crop into the bin, dispelling any concerns about a supply squeeze.

While seeded acreage was down from the previous year, final production estimates of around 116,000-142,000 MT were comparable to 2016, suggesting improved yields. This consistent production level, combined with carryover stocks from previous years, created a supply picture that buyers deemed comfortable. With routine demand from export markets like Mexico and Europe being met without issue, there was no catalyst to push prices higher. Conversely, growers were hesitant to sell at these levels, creating a market equilibrium with little trade and even less excitement, though some anticipated a potential price bump in the new year.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The canary seed grower's dilemma was one of patience versus pragmatism. They could either sell into the flat 20-21¢/lb market to generate cash flow and clear bin space or choose to hold their inventory, betting on a seasonal price rally in late winter. The winners were those who needed immediate cash flow and were able to move product at established prices. The potential losers were those holding out for a significant rally, incurring storage costs in a market where comfortable supplies provided no guarantee of a future price spike.

The Lasting Echo

In a niche market where supply and demand are well-balanced, prices can remain frustratingly stagnant for extended periods, demonstrating that sometimes the biggest market force is inertia itself.

Disclaimer: My analytical process is a hybrid model, combining customized AI tools with manual expertise. The AI is trained for initial data synthesis and signal detection, leaving the crucial work of strategic interpretation and final analysis to me.