2025

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Feed): $4.75/bu to $6.15/bu FOB farm, with prices strengthening closer to Alberta's feedlot alley.
  • Dominant Theme: Strong and stable domestic feed demand provided a floor for prices, insulating the market from wider global volatility and trade disputes.
  • Pivotal Event: A sharp decline in U.S. corn imports into Canada, which tightened the domestic feed grain balance sheet and supported barley values throughout the year.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish for feed, stagnant for malt.

Narrative

The barley market in 2025 was a tale of two distinct sectors: a robust and active feed market, and a stagnant, quiet malt market. Feed barley prices began the year on firm footing, ranging from $4.75 to $5.75/bu FOB farm, and demonstrated remarkable stability, avoiding the significant declines seen in other crops. This strength was amplified by a sharp reduction in U.S. corn imports, forcing domestic livestock and ethanol sectors to rely more heavily on Canadian barley stocks, which were already forecasted to be the fourth lowest in 25 years.

As the year progressed, feed bids climbed, reaching as high as $6.15/bu in western Saskatchewan by late spring. Even as harvest approached and other feed grains faced downward pressure from quality concerns and a large U.S. corn crop, barley held its value, trading well above $5.00/bu. In contrast, the malt market remained inert. Maltsters, seemingly secure in their positions, showed minimal interest in either old or new crop, with bids rarely differentiating from feed values. The market became a purely domestic feed play, with prices dictated by proximity to feedlot alley and the ever-present competition from U.S. corn.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The year's critical decision point rested with barley growers. They faced the choice of selling their grain into a historically strong, high-volume feed market for a guaranteed and attractive price, or holding out for a potential—but entirely absent—malt premium. Growers who sold into the feed market throughout the year were the clear winners, capitalizing on consistent demand and firm pricing. Those who held their inventory, gambling on a late-season return of malt demand, were left with a product that offered no additional value and missed the peak of the feed market's strength, facing logistical challenges to move it before the new crop arrived.

The Lasting Echo

The 2025 season demonstrated that in an era of global trade uncertainty, a strong, localized domestic demand base can be a market’s most powerful shield.

2024

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range: Feed barley bids ranged from lows near $4.25/bu to highs around $5.70/bu FOB farm, with a persistent geographical spread favoring western regions.
  • Dominant Theme: The market was overwhelmingly dictated by the price of cheaper U.S. corn imports, which consistently pressured domestic feed barley values and capped any potential for significant rallies.
  • Pivotal Event: The absence of a typical seasonal price increase heading into summer. Instead of rallying, prices remained flat to weak, signaling a structural shift driven by corn parity.
  • Market Sentiment: Consistently Bearish. Feedlots remained comfortable with their inventory, and the malt market was exceptionally quiet, offering no price support.

Narrative

The 2024 barley market was a story of unrelenting pressure from the south. From the start of the year, feed barley bids were on the defensive, unable to gain traction against a steady flow of cheaper U.S. corn into Prairie feedlots. Prices in January hovered in the $5.25-$5.60/bu FOB farm range but soon retreated, establishing a new reality where barley’s primary role was to trade at a discount to its American competitor. While small premiums of $0.25-$0.50/bu could be captured for deferred summer delivery, the typical seasonal rally never materialized, leaving growers who held inventory disappointed. The market became a pure basis trade against corn, with warm weather further reducing feed demand and cementing a bearish tone that lasted the entire year. The malting sector offered no escape, as it remained almost entirely silent on both old and new crop purchasing, leaving feedlots as the only game in town—a game whose rules were written in bushels of corn.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The year's critical dilemma belonged to the feed barley grower with unpriced grain in the bin. As winter turned to spring, they faced a stark choice: sell into a weak, corn-pressured spot market to generate cash flow, or hold their inventory in hopes of a traditional summer price rally. Holding on meant betting against the powerful arbitrage that kept U.S. corn flowing north. The winners were the large-scale feedlots that leveraged cheap corn to manage input costs effectively, and the growers who abandoned hope for a rally early and sold before prices softened further into harvest. The losers were producers who held inventory past the spring, only to see the anticipated summer price lift never arrive, forcing them to sell at or below earlier values.

The Lasting Echo

The year 2024 solidified a new pricing paradigm where Canadian feed barley’s value was no longer primarily driven by its own supply and demand, but by its discount relative to imported U.S. corn.

2023

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Feed): $5.25 - $8.15/bu FOB farm/delivered
  • Price Range (Malt): $7.50 - $9.30/bu delivered
  • Dominant Theme: The persistent downward pressure of imported US corn against a backdrop of geopolitical shifts in global trade.
  • Pivotal Event: China's removal of tariffs on Australian barley, signaling the eventual end of a multi-year market advantage for Canadian exports.
  • Market Sentiment: Stable turning to Bearish

Narrative

The Canadian barley market began 2023 in a position of stability, with strong feed values holding between $7.50 and $8.00/bu FOB farm, particularly in western regions closer to Alberta's feedlot alley. Throughout the first quarter, the market narrative was a simple one of geography and timing; prices improved heading west, and deferred delivery contracts offered modest carries. New crop feed contracts were introduced in the $6.00 to $6.75/bu range, representing historically strong forward pricing opportunities.

However, two significant global and continental factors began to cast long shadows over the market. The first was the ongoing arrival of US corn trains into Western Canada, which consistently capped upside potential and established a price ceiling for domestic feed grains. The second, more structural threat was the diplomatic thaw between Australia and China. By early February, discussions were underway to resolve the multi-year tariff dispute, a development that promised to eventually restore Australia's position as a primary supplier to China and erode a key source of Canadian export demand.

As the year progressed, these pressures intensified. By late fall, with the China-Australia tariffs officially scrapped and a steady flow of US corn secured by feedlots, Canadian feed barley bids eroded significantly, falling into the $5.25 to $6.25/bu range. The market for malt barley remained muted throughout the year, with maltsters appearing well-covered and offering only slight premiums over feed, keeping purchasing quiet and opportunistic.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The year's critical decision belonged to the Prairie feed barley grower in the spring, facing strong new crop bids around $6.50/bu FOB farm. The dilemma was whether to lock in this historically profitable price on a deferred delivery contract (without an Act of God clause) or to bet on spot prices remaining elevated through harvest.

  • Winners: Growers who conservatively contracted a percentage of their expected production. They secured excellent margins and mitigated the risk of the eventual price decline caused by US corn pressure and the resolution of the Australia-China trade dispute.
  • Losers: Growers who held out for a repeat of the previous year's highs. They saw the market systematically undercut by cheaper corn and were forced to sell into a much weaker post-harvest environment, leaving significant value on the table.

The Lasting Echo

The year served as a stark reminder that even with strong local demand, no market is an island; Canadian feed grain prices are ultimately a basis trade against the continental behemoth of US corn.

2022

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Old Crop Feed): Opened the year near $9.00/bu, saw volatility before settling into an $8.00 - $9.25/bu range for much of the year, then softened to $6.25 - $7.75/bu post-harvest.
  • Price Range (New Crop Feed): Contracts started near $6.00/bu, rallied to over $7.00/bu, and peaked with bids matching old crop near $9.00/bu before the 2022 harvest began.
  • Dominant Theme: A persistent battle for inclusion in feed rations against a steady influx of cheaper US corn, which capped domestic price potential.
  • Pivotal Event: The arrival of unit trains of US corn into Western Canadian feedlots, fundamentally altering the feed grain price structure and creating a ceiling for barley values.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish to start the year, turning to cautious optimism, and eventually softening as the reality of corn competition and a better 2022 crop set in.

Narrative

The 2022 barley market began where the 2021 drought left off, with historically strong prices and tight supplies commanding bids of $9.00/bu or better. However, this domestic strength was quickly tested by the arrival of US corn, which began infiltrating Prairie feedlots and forced barley to trade as a direct competitor to the landed price of American grain. For months, the market was a tense equilibrium of tight on-farm stocks and logistical hurdles supporting local prices, balanced against the ever-present ceiling imposed by corn.

New crop bids to secure 2022 production were aggressive, climbing from $6.00/bu to over $7.00/bu, eventually reaching parity with old crop bids near $9.00/bu by early summer. The malt market remained a quieter, sample-driven affair, with new crop programs near $9.00-$10.00/bu offering a premium but lacking the consistent liquidity of the feed market. As favorable weather boosted prospects for the 2022 crop, harvest pressure began to weigh on the market, causing both old and new crop values to retreat from their highs and settle into a more subdued, albeit still historically strong, range by year-end.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The year's critical decision fell to the Western Canadian feedlot operator. Their dilemma was whether to secure tight and historically expensive local feed barley early in the year or to take on logistical risk and wait for the arrival of cheaper US corn to fill their rations. Those who paid up for barley guaranteed supply but risked overpaying, while those who waited for corn saved on input costs but were vulnerable to rail delays and freight volatility. The winners were operators who adeptly balanced both sources, using corn's arrival to leverage down local barley prices. The losers were those who committed too heavily to either extreme, either by locking in peak barley prices or by being left without feed when logistical snags delayed corn shipments.

The Lasting Echo

In 2022, the Prairie barley market learned that even in a year of extreme domestic scarcity, its value is ultimately dictated by the landed cost of its American corn competitor.

2021

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Feed): Started the year at ~$5.00/bu, rallied through the summer to peak between $8.00-$9.50/bu FOB farm by year-end.
  • Price Range (Malt): Began the year with minimal premium to feed; by Q4, bids rose to the $9.00-$11.00/bu range as buyers hunted for scarce quality supply.
  • Dominant Theme: A historic inversion where a supercharged feed market, driven by Chinese demand and then drought, set the price floor and dragged a reluctant malt market along with it.
  • Pivotal Event: The severe summer drought across the Prairies, which decimated yield potential and transformed a strong pricing environment into an explosive, supply-rationing rally.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish all year, accelerating to white-hot from July onwards as the scale of the production shortfall became clear.

Narrative

The barley market in 2021 was a tale of two distinct halves, defined by a seismic shift from strong demand to catastrophic supply failure. The year began with the feed market firmly in control, a dynamic that would only intensify. Driven by relentless Chinese export demand, feed barley bids started strong at $5.00/bu and established a high-priced floor that the malt market struggled to compete with. Maltsters were quiet through the first half, with new crop bids offering little incentive over simply targeting the less risky and highly profitable feed stream.

As spring turned to a brutally hot and dry summer, the narrative shifted from strong prices to supply survival. The drought decimated yield potential across North America, lighting a fire under a market already supported by tight stocks. Feed bids exploded, climbing from $6.00/bu in early summer to an astonishing $8.00/bu and higher by August, with new crop values being pulled up in sympathy to over $5.50/bu.

In the final quarter, the consequences of the drought fully materialized. With a severely limited and poor-quality harvest, maltsters were forced to enter the market aggressively, pushing bids into the $10.00-$11.00/bu range to secure what little spec product was available. Meanwhile, the arrival of US corn imports began to cap the upside for feed barley, though prices remained historically firm, closing the year between $8.25-$9.00/bu. The year cemented a new reality where feed demand, not malt, was the undisputed driver of barley valuation.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The defining dilemma of 2021 was for the grower staring at a parched field in July. They faced a gut-wrenching choice: forward contract a portion of their anticipated new crop at historically unprecedented feed prices (>$5.50/bu), or wait, gambling that a near-total crop failure would send prices even higher while risking having nothing left to sell. Winners were growers in fortunate pockets of moisture who had some yield to sell into the post-harvest highs of $8.00+/bu. Losers were those who either contracted bushels they couldn't produce or those whose crop failed so completely they couldn't participate in the historic rally at all, facing the dual devastation of zero production and record high feed replacement costs.

The Lasting Echo

The drought of 2021 taught the barley market that when global demand converges with a Prairie supply shock, the line between feed and malt quality can be erased by a tsunami of price.

2020

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Feed): A low of approximately $3.40/bu ($156/t) early in the year, rallying to a high of $5.75/bu ($264/t) in Alberta by year-end.
  • Price Range (Malt): A narrow band around $5.00/bu ($229/t) for the few contracts available, showing a historically slim premium over feed.
  • Dominant Theme: A tale of two markets, with a booming feed sector driven by strong domestic demand and export opportunities, while the malt market stagnated under the weight of a global pandemic.
  • Pivotal Event: China's imposition of an 80.5% tariff on Australian barley, which redirected global demand and created a significant export opportunity for Canadian feed barley.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish for feed; Neutral to Bearish for malt.

Narrative

The 2020 barley market was sharply divided. Feed barley enjoyed a remarkable year, starting strong with bids over $4.00/bu ($184/t) in Alberta and, despite some harvest pressure, climbing to multi-year highs by winter. This strength was fueled by robust demand from Western Canada’s “feedlot alley” and amplified by a pivotal geopolitical shift: China’s imposition of heavy tariffs on Australian barley. This action effectively opened the door for Canadian exports to fill a crucial void, keeping bids exceptionally firm. The low value of the Canadian dollar also played a key role, making US corn imports less competitive and forcing domestic feeders to bid aggressively to secure supply.

In stark contrast, the malt market languished. The global shutdown of restaurants, bars, and sporting events due to COVID-19 crushed demand for beer, causing maltsters to halt production and push back delivery on existing contracts. Spot opportunities were scarce, and the premium for malt quality all but evaporated. For much of the year, top-tier malt barley commanded a price barely distinguishable from feed-grade product, creating a market dynamic where logistics and cash flow trumped quality premiums. By year-end, while feed bids in Alberta were pushing towards $5.75/bu ($264/t), malt bids remained stuck near $5.00/bu ($229/t), a historically narrow spread that defined the year.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The year’s critical decision belonged to the grower with a bin of on-spec malt barley. Their dilemma was whether to sell into the hot, liquid feed market for a guaranteed price and prompt movement, or to endure significant delays and uncertainty by holding out for a malt premium that might never materialize. Those who pivoted early and sold their high-quality barley as feed capitalized on the price rally, improved their cash flow, and avoided the logistical headaches of a backlogged malt system. The losers were those who held on, tying up capital and bin space while waiting for a malt premium that was ultimately erased by unprecedented demand destruction.

The Lasting Echo

The 2020 market demonstrated that in times of extreme disruption, a commodity's end-use demand can completely overwhelm its intrinsic quality, forcing a historic convergence of feed and malt barley values.

2019

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Feed): $4.25 - $5.40/bu FOB farm, peaking mid-year before harvest pressure.
  • Price Range (Malt): New crop contracts offered around $5.25/bu FOB farm.
  • Dominant Theme: A tale of two distinct periods: a strong, feed-driven market early in the year giving way to significant harvest pressure from a massive Canadian crop.
  • Pivotal Event: The realization in late summer that a 15-20% increase in seeded acres, combined with late rains, would produce an enormous feed supply, fundamentally shifting market dynamics.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish to Neutral. Started the year strong on tight ending stocks and as a cheaper substitute for corn, but sentiment cooled as the scale of the 2019 crop became apparent.

Narrative

The barley market in 2019 was a story of bullish beginnings meeting a bearish conclusion. The year opened with robust feed demand, as cold weather and a strong corn market pulled prices well above $4.75/bu FOB, with the best bids concentrated in Alberta and western Saskatchewan. This strength was a clear signal to growers, who responded by increasing seeded area by an estimated 10-15%. New crop malt contracts were available early, offering a premium at $5.25/bu FOB.

As the year progressed, the feed market remained the primary driver, with prices peaking above $5.00/bu FOB farm into the summer months, fueled by drought concerns and tightening old crop supplies. However, the narrative shifted dramatically as timely rains fell across the prairies. With a massive crop developing and a difficult harvest pushing much of the presumed malt crop into the feed stream, the weight of new supply began to press on the market. By late fall, with a crop estimated near 10 MMT—the largest since 2013—bids had retreated significantly, settling in a range of $3.50 to $4.00/bu FOB as buyers faced ample supply and logistical challenges.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The year's critical decision belonged to the Western Canadian feedlot operator. In the first half of the year, they faced tightening old crop barley supplies and firming prices, forcing them to weigh the cost of securing coverage against cheaper but logistically complex US corn imports. The dilemma was whether to aggressively buy Canadian barley at over $5.00/bu to ensure supply through the summer, or to slow purchasing and gamble on a significant price drop once the large new crop became available. Operators who bought heavily early in the year secured their supply but paid top dollar. Those who waited and managed their inventories through the summer were the winners, gaining access to a deluge of new crop barley at prices more than a dollar per bushel cheaper than the summer highs.

The Lasting Echo

The 2019 market demonstrated that even with strong underlying demand, barley prices remain acutely sensitive to the sheer scale of Western Canadian production.

2018

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Feed): $3.75 - $5.00/bu FOB farm
  • Price Range (Malt): Limited bids, often near $5.25/bu delivered; a narrow premium over feed
  • Dominant Theme: Feed barley's price strength was directly linked to the rising cost of US corn, making it the preferred, cost-effective substitute for feedlots.
  • Pivotal Event: The first-quarter surge in feed demand, driven by cold weather and expensive corn, which pushed feed values to levels that rivaled or exceeded net returns for malt.
  • Market Sentiment: Bullish for feed; indifferent for malt.

Narrative

The barley market in 2018 was overwhelmingly a feed-driven story. The year began with strong feed demand as cold weather increased rations and rising corn prices forced feedlots to seek cheaper alternatives. This dynamic pushed feed barley values to impressive highs, peaking near $5.00/bu in some areas by late fall. The strength was so pronounced that it often erased the traditional premium for malting barley, leading many growers to sell their malt-quality grain directly into the feed channel for quick movement and minimal risk. While a few selective malt programs surfaced with bids around $5.25/bu delivered, the feed market offered comparable, and often superior, net returns without the threat of rejection. As harvest progressed, the market softened slightly under the weight of new supply but remained historically strong, capping a banner year for feed barley producers.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The year's critical dilemma belonged to the grower with high-quality malting barley in the bin. They faced the choice of chasing elusive and uncertain malt premiums with pushed-out delivery windows or capitalizing on the immediate, robust, and risk-free feed market. Those who chose to sell into the feed channel were the clear winners; they secured excellent prices, rapid cash flow, and avoided the potential for costly discounts or rejections at the malt plant. Growers who held out for a significant malt premium were often left waiting for a market that never truly materialized, watching the opportunity to sell into a historic feed rally pass them by.

The Lasting Echo

The year proved that in a market with strong feed grain competition, even high-quality malt barley can find its most profitable home as a simple feedstuff.

2017

At-a-Glance

  • Price Range (Feed): $3.50/bu to $4.00/bu FOB farm
  • Price Range (Malt): ~$4.00/bu to $4.25/bu delivered/FOB farm
  • Dominant Theme: Price suppression from cheap US corn, creating a ceiling on feed values.
  • Pivotal Event: The weakening of the Canadian dollar in the fall, which made US corn imports more expensive and provided temporary support to local barley bids.
  • Market Sentiment: Bearish to Neutral. The market was consistently weighed down by cross-border feed dynamics, limiting upside potential.

Narrative

The barley market in 2017 was a story of constant negotiation with its American competitor: corn. Throughout the year, the price of feed barley was effectively capped by the cost of imported US corn, which was abundant and trading at five-year lows. Prairie feedlots demonstrated their willingness to substitute, quickly switching to corn whenever local barley bids became "too high." This dynamic kept feed prices pinned in a range of $3.50/bu to $3.85/bu for much of the period.

The malt market offered little refuge. Bids were stagnant and unattractive, hovering only slightly above feed values. The risk-reward calculation was so poor that many producers opted to sell their malt-quality barley directly into the feed market, preferring the guaranteed price over the risk of failing to meet malt specifications for a marginal premium. A brief period of strength emerged late in the year when a falling Canadian dollar made corn more expensive for domestic buyers, allowing feed barley to rally toward the $4.00/bu mark for deferred delivery. However, the underlying theme remained: so long as US corn was cheap, Canadian barley's potential was limited.

Stakeholder's Dilemma

The critical dilemma belonged to the grower with malt-quality barley. They faced a choice between marketing their grain into a quiet, stagnant malt market for a bid around $4.25/bu—risking quality rejection and costly discounts—or selling it directly into the more liquid feed market for a firm $3.75-$4.00/bu. The winners were the producers who recognized the poor risk/reward of the malt market and capitalized on the strong feed bids for quick cash flow. The losers were those who held out for a significant malt premium that never materialized, incurring storage costs only to potentially sell into the feed market later.

The Lasting Echo

Cross-border feed parity can impose a hard ceiling on the domestic grain market, demonstrating that a producer's biggest competitor isn't always their neighbour, but rather a different commodity from another country.